Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 170701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
301 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Northern Michigan was on the southerly end of upper troughing over
New England, south of a moisture-starved frontal boundary draped
from Maine to central Ontario. This front was pressing SW as a back
door cold front, as shortwave energy dives down the backside of the
upper troughing. Split flow was out to our south and west, where the
srn stream branch of the upper jet was more active, producing the
closest weather to nrn Michigan. A shortwave and low pressure system
was working through the mid Mississippi valley, and resulting in a
wintry mix across Illinois. The nrn edge of the system`s cloud
shield was near Manistee, but other than that, skies were clear for
us with temperatures tanking into the teens over much of the region.

We have entered into the long period of quiet weather for nrn
Michigan. Hardly anything changes in the upper levels today through
tonight. We remain on the srn fringe of the nrn jet stream, buried
within some pretty dry air and high pressure. Skies will be clear
through the morning, despite the aforementioned frontal zone sliding
into our neck of the woods this morning. There will be some increase
in mid and upper level clouds later today and into this evening, as
another shortwave dives down the backside of the New England upper
troughing. A weak area of low pressure develops on this frontal zone
in SW Ontario this afternoon, which then crosses the nrn Great Lakes
tonight. The front returns north of us as a warm front, but dives
back into the region late tonight with the departure of the wave
and low pressure.  Again, the air mass is pretty dry, with minimal
moisture associated with the low pressure. Precipitation definitely
out of the question, but the clouds are likely later today, as they
are already out there seen pushing through srn Manitoba. One other
thing to watch for, although not impactful, will be the shallow
colder air that slides in behind the front this morning, and again
late tonight. 925mb temperatures get to -6C, just on the verge of
enough overlake instability for moisture flux and the need for
looking at lake clouds in NW/N flow.

Highs today warming up very nicely in drier atmosphere, into the mid
30s in eastern upper, to the low to mid 40s along and south of M-72.
Lows tonight needed significant adjustment, as guidance is poor in
good radiational cooling scenarios. Single digits in the typically
colder locales, with most areas into the teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Continued quiet weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid-level ridging over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday will flatten out by Monday as a closed
low ejects eastward from the Rockies. A weak, moisture-starved cold
front will drop south through northern Michigan Sunday morning, but
with little effect on daytime temperatures. Canadian high pressure
and a dry airmass will build in from the north behind the front on

Primary Forecast Concerns...No significant forecast concerns as a
stretch of benign weather continues for northern Michigan. A rather
dry airmass will promote precipitation-free conditions, though it
appears there will be a little more in the way of cloud cover Sunday
and Monday. Sunday`s cold front will have some decaying cloud cover
associated with it, and the cold air advection aloft developing in
its wake will lead to steep low level lapse rates and some lake
induced instability. Maybe some scattered stratocu as a result, but
not expecting more than perhaps partly cloudy skies at times
downwind of the lakes in the developing northeasterly flow. Thanks
to the front, there will be quite a spread in high temperatures
Sunday, ranging from about 30 near Paradise to near 50 at Gladwin.
Monday will be a tad cooler with highs in the mid 20s north to
mid/upper 30s south.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Not much sensible weather to talk about in the extended portion of
the forecast. Another strong surface high accompanied by a dry
airmass will sit over Ontario and Quebec through the middle of the
week. Upper low/shortwave and inverted surface trough over the
Northern Plains on Tuesday will weaken as they encounter the dry
airmass and strong surface high. All this will spell continued dry
and slightly cooler than normal conditions for northern Michigan.
Rising heights towards the end of the week will correspond to a
small moderation in temperatures for Thursday into Friday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Solid VFR conditions at all Northern Lower Michigan airports
thru Saturday night, as high pressure and dry air remain over the
region. Winds will be westerly under 10 kts thru the period.




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