788
FXUS63 KAPX 101453
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1053 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances tonight and Saturday.

- Patchy frost possible Saturday morning.

- Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
  Sunday into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

No big changes necessary to the forecast. Still can`t rule out a
few stray afternoon lake breeze convergent initiated showers.
Most spots should remain rain free. Otherwise, partly to mostly
sunny skies expected with seasonably warm temperatures with
highs in the low and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Synopsis/Pattern: High pressure extends ne-ward into the upper
MS Valley and western Lk Superior. Low pressure over far
northern Ontario extends a cold front toward Winnipeg and
eastern ND. Aloft, a digging shortwave will deepen and close off
as it heads for the northern lakes. This will result in a
surface wave deepening along the cold front, with the resulting
low directly over our heads at daybreak Saturday.

Forecast: Lights winds this morning will give way to a weak west
synoptic wind this afternoon. Flow will be weak enough for lake
breeze development. Localized convergence will be highest
somewhat inland in ne lower MI, and where lake breezes collide
in eastern upper. Instability looks meager, maybe 100-200j/kg,
but we`ve got enough localized forcing to take advantage of
minimal Cape. Will maintain a slight chance for a shower this
afternoon in parts of eastern upper and ne lower MI. Otherwise a
partly to mostly sunny day, though with clouds increasing late.

Max temps in the 60s.

Tonight, isentropic ascent increases in a relatively narrow
ribbon, ahead of a deepening surface low and amplifying 500mb
wave. Moisture availability is somewhat limited, with surface
ridging dominating the se states and central plains. But forcing
will be enough to generate showers in a portion of the area. In
the evening and early overnight, will mention a chance of
showers w of I-75 in both peninsulas. Showers will progress se-
ward with time; likely pops forecast overnight in the sw third
of the forecast area (including MBL/TVC/Gladwin. Pops decrease
to a slight chance or less north of the big bridge. Looks to be
on the cloudy side across the area.

Min temps within a few degrees of 40f.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An upper-level low tracks into Northern Michigan spreading rain
showers/shallow convection across the CWA Friday night into
Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead
Sunday into next week will result in the chance for rain showers
once again for the next several days. However, as previously stated,
a brief break in activity could be possible mid next week (Tuesday/
Wednesday) as energy looks to be situated to the north and south of
the region while in a more zonal flow. Unsettled weather returns for
later in the week as another system impacts the CWA bringing back
chances for rain showers.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers/ shallow convection Saturday; patchy frost possible
Saturday morning: Winds shift northerly Friday into Saturday as a
low pressure tracks across Northern Michigan. As such, a cold
airmass is drawn southward into the region, leading to the
possibility of enough instability to create a rumble of thunder or
two, especially in the afternoon. With the cooler airmass overhead,
winds expected to become light, clouds clearing, and temperatures
expected to drop into the 30s, the possibility arises that patchy
frost could be a concern for Saturday morning. This potential is
mainly for interior/higher terrain and the typical valley locations.

- Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday
into early next week: A short-lived ridge builds in for Saturday
evening into Sunday promoting clearing for Saturday night. As winds
shift more southerly for Sunday, a warming trend in temperatures is
expected as we head into next week. With these southerly winds, a
flux of moisture will be brought to the region along with increasing
clouds and more chances for rain showers (with possible embedded
thunderstorms) next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR thru this evening. Some restrictions possible overnight.

Low pressure will cross northern MI early Saturday. Just VFR
conditions thru this evening. As the low approaches, clouds
increase and lower tonight. MVFR cigs and some -SHRA will be
possible overnight at PLN/TVC/MBL.

Mainly light winds today. Onshore lake breezes this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ