Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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256
FXUS61 KBUF 231212
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
812 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Spectacular weather will be found across all of western and north
central New York this week...as a large area of high pressure will
slowly drift across the Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will climb
above normal in the process...with daytime highs in the 80s Friday
and Saturday. Our next chance for rain will be later this weekend
when there could be a few showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to build across the region today and into
tonight. Lingering low-level moisture across the area has resulted
in some patchy fog, but mainly a low stratus deck in the
northwesterly, upslope flow. Drier air slowing building into the
region with the surface high pressure, combined with diurnal heating
and mixing will help to scatter out and break up this cloud cover
through the morning hours, while becoming mostly sunny this
afternoon. High temperatures will range from around 70 degree mark
east of the Lakes, the Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes
peaking around 80. With mostly clear skies and light winds tonight
as the surface high gets closer to the area, expect some patchy fog
to develop in interior valleys and outlying rural areas. Overnight
lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday
before sliding off to the east by Friday. This will maintain fair
weather along with a warming trend. Higher humidity levels will
return by the weekend, as tropical moisture starts to work northward
into the region ahead of a weak cold front settling into the region
from the north. All this results in an end to our fair weather with
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Better agreement among Guidance packages with suppressing the
deeper subtropical moisture well south of the Lower Great Lakes.
Over the course of the Memorial day weekend look for
temperatures to nudge upwards (U70s-L80s)along with humidity
levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the
available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For
now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream
shortwave trough over Quebec Canada influences the Lower Great
Lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region
as the shortwave passes by to our north through Ontario Canada
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over New York
State.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leftover IFR to MVFR conditions early this morning will improve to
VFR by 15z...as Canadian high pressure with a notably drier airmass
will gradually build into the region.

VFR conditions with clear skies can be expected from late today
through at least tonight...although some fog may be found throughout
the valleys of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight.
This could impact sites like KJHW and KELZ tonight with reduced
vsbys.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will not be very strong, however there will be areas of
fog due to the warm moist air across the relatively cool lake
waters. Surface high pressure will near the region today, passing
over the Eastern Great Lakes Thursday, before shifting towards the
Southeast states on Friday. This will maintain light winds and
minimal waves through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Church
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Church



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