Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 181442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A weak and dry cold front will push from northeast to southwest
across the region this afternoon and tonight. High pressure
will then build back into the region for Monday through much of
next week with an extended period of dry weather expected.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next week.


A weak shortwave seen in WV imagery over the upper Great Lakes, and
accompanying surface reflection seen in the surface analysis, will
slide southeastward across Lake Ontario this afternoon and
central NY tonight. A strong Canadian high pressure system will
build in across the region from the north in the wake of this
shortwave passage.

The overall impact of the shortwave passage will be just some
passing mid and high level cloud cover today, which extends from
Lake Huron to Lake Ontario late this morning. This will be followed
by colder air and high pressure building into the region from
northeast to southwest. Highs today will be warmest across WNY,
approaching 40F, with southwesterly winds in place as the weak
surface reflection passes across the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Coolest readings will be across the North Country, which
will stay in the 20s.

Tonight, as the cold front backdoor across the region and high
pressure builds in, temperatures will be cold enough for low-level
lake effect cloud cover to develop south of Lake Ontario. However
the abundantly dry airmass will preclude any precipitation. Clear
skies and light winds in the North Country will allow temperatures
to drop to near the zero degree mark again tonight, with the typical
coolest spots around the Tug Hill likely to see some negative single
digit readings. Otherwise, western NY will be in the teens to around


On Monday a weak backdoor cold front will settle just south of the
area across northern PA and northern Ohio. Surface high pressure
will drift slowly east across northwest Ontario province, with a
ridge extending down into the eastern Great Lakes. This high, and
associated dry air and subsidence will keep dry weather in place
from Monday through Tuesday night and beyond. Meanwhile a surface
low and associated mid level trough will move across the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic later Monday and Tuesday. This system
will remain well south of our area, but will spread some mid/high
clouds northward at times. Low level northeast flow will promote a
few periods of minor lake effect and upslope clouds south of Lake
Ontario, but the cold air will be too shallow for any lake effect
snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. Highs both
Monday and Tuesday will range from the low to mid 30s across Western
NY to the 20s for higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Lows
Monday night will be in the teens in most locations, and single
digits east of Lake Ontario. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
lower 20s on the lake plains of Western NY to the teens across
interior sections, and single digits east of Lake Ontario.


Wednesday through Friday a pair of mid level systems and associated
surface lows will move through the Mid Atlantic States, eventually
evolving into a fairly strong low well off the east coast. This
stronger system will head into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday.
All of this will remain well south and east of our area, as
persistent high pressure remains in place from northwest Ontario
province into the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry weather
through Friday, with a few periods of enhanced cloud cover as weak
mid level systems cross the area. Temperatures will remain below
normal, with just a slow upward creep in temperatures day to day.

The pattern becomes more interesting again by Saturday. The latest
00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all in fairly good agreement in taking a
Pacific system quickly east across the mid section of the nation
Friday, reaching the Ohio Valley by early Saturday. The associated
surface low is forecast to move across Ohio and PA, with enough cold
air to support snow to the north of the low track across our region
later Saturday and Saturday night. Despite the currently good
agreement in the operational model guidance, GEFS and GEM ensembles
show a wide spread of possible solutions. With this in mind, have
kept POPS in the chance range for Saturday at this early juncture.


Expect widespread VFR conditions to continue with light winds
this afternoon and tonight.

Sunday evening through Thursday...Mainly VFR.


A weak cold front will cross the area from northeast to southwest
later this afternoon and tonight with high pressure building
back in for Monday through much of the week. Winds and waves
will remain below small craft for the beginning of the week.





NEAR TERM...Apffel/Church
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
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