Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

High pressure centered over northern Ontario will maintain dry and
chilly weather through the end of the week. Temperatures will then
finally climb back to more normal levels by early next week as
persistent deep troughing over the Northeast moves off the east


High pressure stretches from James Bay into the Mid-West and western
Great Lakes while a Nor`easter is southeast of New England this
morning. Northwest flow between these two systems will continue

The moisture field with the Nor`easter is compact and is only
resulting in mid-high level clouds across the region this morning.
Thinning has occurred overnight resulting in mostly clear conditions
across Western NY. Dry conditions are expected today as a shortwave
ridge moves overhead. NW flow across the region will likely produce
upslope clouds late this morning into the afternoon across the
higher terrain. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30s
and U20s/L30s across the higher terrain.

A shortwave trough will drop south across Ontario Province tonight.
Cold air advection and increased moisture will add to the northwest,
upslope flow and light snow showers will be possible. Best
chance will be from Monroe to southern Oswego counties and south
across the western Finger Lakes. Less than an inch of
accumulation is expected in this area tonight. Temperatures will
drop into the 20s and teens at higher elevations.


Closed mid level circulation passing southeast across the area
Friday will bring some diurnally driven snow showers and flurries
with more coverage expected in favored lake/upslope areas south and
east of Lake Ontario. Any snow will have a tough time sticking to
the roads during the day due to air and road temperatures above

The mid level system pushes east Friday night, but troughing remains
over the northeast CONUS through Saturday, with several pieces of
shortwave energy slipping southward. Limited moisture and lift will
limit precipitation to snow flurries or a few passing snow showers
across central New York.

Canadian high pressure will then ridge southward into the region by
Saturday night. This will result in dry weather, with some lingering
lake enhanced clouds south of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs averaging
in the lower to mid 30s and lows ranging from the teens to mid 20s.
The coldest low temperatures will likely be across the Southern Tier
valleys and in Lewis county.


Quiet and cool conditions will start this period as a broad and dry
area of high pressure presses southward from Canada and across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. This surface high will be squeezed
between a storm system passing by to our south and east, and a
developing storm system over the Plains. Strong subsidence will
bring a prolonged period of clear skies starting Sunday afternoon
behind a shortwave dropping across northern NY/NE...and persisting
through Monday night and into Tuesday.

Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build
across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high
pressure and a shortwave from the Plains approaches. There is still
uncertainty to the track of the shortwave, but there will be chances
for mainly rain showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Additionally, a light southerly flow behind the surface high will
bring a taste of early Spring Tuesday and into Wednesday. While we
will likely remain cool Monday with little mixing under the surface
high, Tuesday and Wednesday should feature afternoons that have
temperatures rising to or above normal. This would place maximum
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the region.


SCT-BKN cirrus has led to VFR conditions this morning. Northwest
flow will continue today. MVFR Cigs are possible late this morning
mainly across the higher terrain including KJHW. Overall, VFR
conditions expected today.

A disturbance will approach the region tonight. Increased moisture
and continued upslope, northwest flow will result in snow showers.
The best chance will be across KROC late tonight into Friday
morning. Reductions in Vsbys are expected in any snow shower


Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. A chance of
Lake Effect snow south/southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday night and
Saturday through Monday...VFR.


Moderate north to northeasterly winds across Lake Ontario will
gradually diminish overnight and early Thursday. Northwest winds
will increase this evening as a disturbance approaches the eastern
Great Lakes. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening. Winds
and waves will diminish overnight into Friday morning.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
         for LOZ042-043.



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