Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221717
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly drift east across the area through Monday
and provide plenty of sunshine each day and much warmer
temperatures. Low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to New
England will then bring rain showers to the region from late Tuesday
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region early
this afternoon. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will
slowly drift east off the New England coast through Monday. With a
very dry airmass and subsidence expect full sunshine today and clear
skies tonight.

A weak northerly flow will remain in place today, with airmass
modification warming 850mb temps to around 0C. This will support
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s at lower elevations away
from lake influences, with mid 50s for higher terrain. The weak
gradient northerly flow will be enhanced by lake breeze
circulations this afternoon, keeping the south shores of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie in the mid to upper 40s.

Expect another good radiational cooling night tonight with clear
skies and light winds. Lows will be in the 30s in most locations,
with 20s east of Lake Ontario.

A weak southerly return flow will develop on Monday, and this along
with a warmer air mass will result in even warmer temperatures.
Expect highs to be mainly in the 60s on Monday, with a few spots
making a run at 70. It will continue to be cooler along the
lakeshores, but the southerly gradient flow will limit the lake
breeze to the immediate shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night will be the first more mild night we`ve seen as
well, with increasing warm advection and downsloping holding
overnight lows in the 40s.

Tuesday will remain mild with the southerly flow across the region,
but will likely but just a touch cooler as a cutoff low over stalls
over the Tennessee Valley before beginning a merger with a potent wave
diving in from the upper Great Lakes. The first half of Tuesday will
likely remain dry, with increasing cloud cover, however rain showers
may move in across western NY during the second half of Tuesday,
especially by Tuesday evening. Highs will still be solidly in the
60s for most locations, with Tuesday night lows in the 40s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will see widespread rain showers, and
possibly some periods of fairly steady rain as the cutoff low merges
with the northern stream wave with a strengthening surface low near
or over the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate further under
the upper-level low and the cloudy, rainy weather, bringing highs
mainly the 50s Wednesday. Rain will continue to into Wednesday
night, while likely starting to taper off from west to east
overnight as the surface low tracks northeastward away from the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through the end of the week, the overall pattern will return to
general troughiness over the Northeast. While this will mean an
overall return to cooler and more unsettled weather, the airmass is
not nearly as cold as we dealt with for the first half of April. So
while temperatures will remain slightly below normal, this only
means highs in the 50s, with showers coming in the form of rain
instead of snow.

Looking at the day-to-day details, the shower activity should taper
back from west to east Thursday as the surface low pushes farther
into New England. There may be a brief period of dry weather later
Thursday into Friday as some ridging develops behind the wave moving
into New England and the incoming reinforcing shortwave. This
secondary shortwave will send a cold front into the region some time
Friday with additional chances for showers which may linger through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this through Monday with strong high
pressure bringing SKC.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with a chance of afternoon showers.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers
likely.
Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the Great Lakes this afternoon will move
off the southern New England coast on Monday. This will support
light winds and flat wave action on Lakes Erie and Ontario
through Monday. Local lake breeze circulations will develop each
afternoon with onshore winds along most lakeshores.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Church
LONG TERM...Church
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel



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