281
FXUS61 KBUF 111338
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Don`t let this mornings sunshine fool you...as weak low pressure and
its associated cold front will push through the region this
afternoon and tonight with numerous showers and possible
thunderstorms. Many areas will pick up a quarter to a half inch of
rain in the process. While some showers will linger into Sunday...
mainly east of the Genesee valley...conditions during the second
half of the weekend will gradually improve. Warmer weather will then
accompany another round of widespread showers later MOnday and
Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be deceiving pleasant across the western counties this
morning...as a progressive shortwave ridge will exit to our east.

Conditions will certainly deteriorate this afternoon though...as
a robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across
the Upper Great Lakes. A swath of deep moisture ahead of this system
will push across the western counties during the afternoon...then
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day and tonight.
The resulting lift supplied by moderate hgt falls...low level
convergence and being in the proximity of the left front quad of a
nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will prompt a renewal in
shower activity as the day matures. There could  even be a
thunderstorm over the western counties.

Showery weather will then linger through much of tonight...as
the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across
our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning as a mid-level low
crosses the region. Showers will diminish from west to east as the
mid-level vacates the region Sunday afternoon/evening. A cooler
airmass will linger across the region will afternoon highs only
reaching the lower 60s, with upper 50s across higher terrain.

Dry weather returns Sunday night as shortwave ridging builds in
behind the departing mid-level low. Warmer conditions develop Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s within the warm sector. The nearing cold front will
increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing and
diurnal instability increase. Showers and thunderstorms chances will
continue Monday night as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning
will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to
the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday
night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday
morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central
Plains Friday.

Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area
Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold
front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday,
supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass
across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead.

As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great
Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the
eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday
night thorugh much of Thursday.

The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through
Friday as warm front approaches the area.

Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with
subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures
will have rebounded to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR weather will be in place thorugh at least early this afternoon.

Weak low pressure and its attendant cold front will then approach
the region during the course of the afternoon. Regional radars
show an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this
pending system across Lower Michigan this morning. This activity
will move into western NY this afternoon. Confidence is low to add
TS into the TAF due to uncertainty in coverage. Additional showers
will develop across north central NY ahead of the front.

VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers move into western NY
this afternoon. Widespread low-end VFR/MVFR conditions are
likely with IFR conditions across the higher terrain including
KJHW through tonight. VFR conditions will likely remain at KART
today with flight conditions becoming MVFR late Saturday
evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in
coverage.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and
possible thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule
through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front
approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK/RSH
MARINE...JM/TMA