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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250519
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build southeastward across our area
through Thursday...before slowly drifting to the New England
coastline Friday. The high will guarantee us fair dry weather
through Friday...with below normal temperatures through Thursday
night followed by a return to somewhat above average readings on
Friday as a southeasterly return flow of milder air overspreads our
region. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and
into early next week...resulting in summerlike warmth across our
region both Sunday and Monday. While there will also be some showers
and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday...a fair
amount of dry time can also be expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Unseasonably Cold Overnight and again Thursday night...

Sprawling Canadian high pressure and plentiful dry air centered
north of Georgian Bay continues to build across our region as of
this writing...and has finally scoured out the last of the remaining
low clouds across the Southern Tier. This will set the stage for a
downright cold night for late April...as the very cool dry
airmass...clear skies...and light winds will lead to prime
conditions for radiational cooling. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s along the lakeshores to the lower 20s across interior
portions of the Southern Tier...and to the upper teens and lower 20s
across the North Country. The record low temperature for April 25th
at Watertown is 18 degrees set in 1972...and this will at least be
approached.

The strong Canadian surface high will then settle directly across
our area on Thursday...then will only begrudgingly begin to drift
eastward Thursday night. This will result in continued fair dry
weather throughout...along with largely clear skies. Given the cool
airmass temperatures will remain solidly below normal...with highs
Thursday struggling to get much above the mid 40s to lower 50s in
most places even in spite of abundant sunshine...with the coolest
readings found across the higher terrain and along the south shore
of Lake Ontario...where onshore flow will keep things cooler.
Another rather chilly night will then follow Thursday night...with
lows ranging from the lower 20s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and
upper 20s across much of the rest of the area...and to around 30
close to Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday
night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack
of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will
make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night,
with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland.

A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing
clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late.
Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph
along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a
shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin
average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an
inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than
500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier.

A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the
front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited
instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland
and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope
areas of WNY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heading into the later half of the weekend and into the first half
of the new work week, a ridge will lie across the Great Lakes, while
a broad trough will span across the Rockies and Central Plains.
Additionally, a shortwave trough will will be in the midst of
passing north into the ridge. This pattern will translate to an
initial surface low (supported by the shortwave) to wash out across
northern Quebec, meanwhile another surface low will develop across
the northern Plains. These surface features combined with the
building ridge aloft, will support the initial surface low`s cold
front to stall out just north of the area, supporting a brief
glimpse at summer like conditions with temperatures warming up into
the 70s and afternoon diurnally driven convection. Expect similar
such conditions, though a few degrees warmer to prevail through
Monday as the second surface low traverses northeast across Lake
Superior.

As the surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through
Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region
from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect
some thunderstorms ahead of the front`s arrival Monday night and
then rain showers with the front`s passage Tuesday. Additionally
with the front`s passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler
than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low
70s, though still well above average for the end of April.

A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south
Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian high pressure centered north of Georgian Bay will build
directly overhead through Thursday...before slowly drifting east to
eastern New York and western New England Thursday night. This will
guarantee fair dry weather and unlimited VFR conditions right
through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated
thunderstorm possible.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sprawling high pressure centered north of Georgian Bay will continue
to build across our region through Thursday...before slowly drifting
east to eastern New York and western New England Thursday night.
This will provide our region with fair dry weather and light to
modest winds through Thursday night...with local lake breeze
circulations developing on Lake Ontario during the course of
Thursday and resulting in winds there turning locally onshore around
10 knots. Meanwhile on Lake Erie northeasterly winds of 10-15 knots
are expected Thursday...resulting in some chop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR