Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 201322
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
922 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers will taper off by midday today behind a cold
front. Clouds will be slow to erode today, with sunshine gradually
returning from north to south this afternoon. High pressure will
bring dry weather tonight through Monday. A weak area of low
pressure will then cross the eastern Great Lakes late Monday night
and Tuesday, with showers and a few scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is exiting the area and moving into eastern NY at mid
morning. A few showers are lingering behind the cold front east of
Lake Ontario, but these will end quickly through the late morning
and midday hours as deeper moisture and ascent associated with the
mid level trough move away. Some drizzle or light showers across the
higher terrain east of Lake Erie will also end by late morning.
Clouds will be stubborn to clear initially, with overcast skies
through early afternoon in most locations. After that, expect slow
clearing from north to south during the mid to late afternoon. High
temperatures this afternoon will largely fall within the mid 60s for
the forecast region.

Surface high pressure currently across the western Great Lakes will
push eastward today and tonight, promoting a period of fair weather
with clearing skies tonight and light winds. This surface high,
combined with confluence aloft will hold showers and thunderstorms
well to our south through the night. Temperatures will quickly fall
this evening...dropping to around 40F across inland portions of the
North Country, and 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will slide across the region while weakening Monday,
providing for dry weather to kick off the work week. A weak wave
will then approach the eastern Great Lakes later Monday and cross
the region through Tuesday. Cloud cover will increase from southwest
to northeast ahead of this wave Monday, but any rain will hold off
until Monday evening through Tuesday. There is still some
differences in timing and location among model guidance, but in
general the chance for precipitation is greatest across the Southern
Tier and less further to the north. Despite model agreement keep
Pops in the chance-likely range due to the convective nature of the
precipitation. Some surface based instability develops on Tuesday,
which carries the risk of some thunderstorms. The wave will depart
to our east later Tuesday with a clearing and drying out trend
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal during the period with
daytime highs mainly in the 70s, except slightly cooler near the
immediate lakeshore due to the lake breeze. Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the eastern Great Lakes for the second
half of the work week, bringing dry weather and a gradual warming
trend. Temperatures will average above normal, with daytime highs
warming from the 70s on Thursday to the upper 70s to mid 80s on
Saturday.

A slow moving trough is then set to impinge upon the Great Lakes
region as we move into the weekend, with several global models also
showing some poleward advection of tropical moisture into the region
ahead of the trough. Thus there is some potential for heavy rainfall
next weekend and into early next week, although there are plenty of
details that still need to be resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will exit east of the TAF region this morning, with
northwest winds and IFR/MVFR flight conditions following. These
conditions will improve to VFR through the late morning and midday,
with KJHW likely the last site to return to VFR as low level
moisture lingers the longest there.

Expect these VFR flight conditions to persist through Sunday
night for all areas save for the SO. Tier where some areas of
fog with IFR flight conditions are possible.


Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind a cold front waves will increase some on the lakes, but
likely remain just below small craft thresholds with choppy
conditions through early afternoon. Surface high pressure will then
build eastward across the Lower Lakes tonight through Monday night
with light winds and minimal waves. This surface high pressure will
be reinforced mid-week...maintaining a prolonged period of light
winds and minimal waves on the lakes through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/Church
AVIATION...Hitchcock/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas



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