Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 232339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
739 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south
across our region for the duration of the weekend. While a light
snow shower cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario tonight...the
large surface high will supply our region with fair dry weather
through at least Monday night. Meanwhile...temperatures that will
remain below normal this weekend will finally climb well above
normal for much of next week.


Fair weather will remain in place across our region through the
weekend...although marginally moist air in the low levels will
be lifted by a northerly upslope flow tonight...and this should
generate some cloud cover for the Eastern lake Ontario region
where a spotty snow shower cannot be ruled out. As for some

A robust shortwave over Pennsylvania this evening will continue to
push away from our region tonight...while an expansive area of high
pressure centered over Hudson Bay will extend to the south across
the Lower Great Lakes. The subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
will be enhanced by weak shortwave ridging so that fair weather can
be expected through the night. The only fly in the ointment will be
a developing northerly upslope flow that could aid in generating
some lower strato-cu over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region. This process could be aided by some lake
H85 temps in the vcnty of -12c will induce a little lake induced
instability. A low subsidence cap should limit this enhancement
though. Mins tonight will be within a few degrees of those from the
past two nights...ranging from the mid 20s across the lake plains to
the mid teens in the Southern Tier.

For Saturday...the nose of the strong Canadian surface high will
pass over our region. While there will be some lake induced/upslope
related strato-cu over parts of the region during the morning and
some self destruct Cu (from steepening lapse rates) in the
afternoon...most areas should be able to enjoy at least partial
sunshine. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs of
generally 30 to 35...but a strong late March sun will take the edge
off the otherwise chilly airmass.

Saturday night and Sunday...the large Canadian high to our north
will remain in firm control of our weather. Guidance is suggesting
that additional drying in the mid levels can be expected as we can fully anticipate more fair weather under mainly
clear skies. While temperatures on Sunday will modify a few
degrees...they will remain below seasonal normals.


Operational and ensemble model guidance is showing a nice 500mb
ridge building across the Eastern States early next week. This ridge
will run close to two standard deviations above normal for this time
of year and will help to bring above normal surface temperatures. At
the surface, the center of high pressure which has been providing us
with cool but dry weather for much of the past week is forecast to
shift south and center over New England. This will direct warm
southwesterly winds across Western and Central NY Monday and Tuesday
along with dry weather through much of Tuesday.

After a cool start Monday morning with temps in the 20s near the
lakes and teens inland, we expect temps to warm into the 40s by
Monday afternoon and mid 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday as 850mb temps
rise above 0C. This should be welcomed warmth after more than two
weeks with below normal temperatures through much of March. By
Tuesday the southerly flow will become gusty ahead of a storm system
lifting across the Midwest states. Moisture ahead of this system
will bring back cloud cover through Tuesday with showers likely
holding off across western and central NY until Tuesday night where
chance POPs have been inserted.


Medium range operational models are showing a broad and deep
mid level trough is forecast to dig south across much of the
CONUS mid- late next week with its axis running south across the
central states. This would be in response to the center of a
deep arctic closed low pushing south over western Hudson Bay.
This trough would remove the ridging over the eastern states
with falling heights over our region through the second half of
next week. The NAEFS mean 500mb heights is not nearly as
amplified with the trough. A stalled/slow moving frontal zone
just the west of New York looks to bring a likely probability
for rain showers Wednesday for western NY with CNY limited to
chance POPs as the eastward progression of the front is
uncertain. With western and central NY on the eastern edge of
the mid-level trough and potential for one or more surface waves
moving through the frontal zone, chances for rain showers have
been included Wednesday night through Friday.

Temperatures through Thursday are expected to remain 5-10 degrees
above normal. The falling heights/possibility for the frontal zone
pushing to our east, should bring in cooler air for Friday with
temps closer to normal in the 40s. Overnight temps through this
period should generally remain above freezing leading to rain
showers for a p-type. Wednesday and Thursday areas immediately east
and northeast of the Great Lakes will likely be cooler vs. inland
areas owing to southwest winds over the cold lake waters.


High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will extend south across our
region through the weekend. This will maintain fair VFR weather...
although some late night MVFR cigs will be possible across parts of
the Southern Tier and in the Finger Lakes regions.


Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some rain showers likely.


Strong high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south across
the region tonight through the course of the weekend. The resulting
northerly gradient will be strong enough tonight to generate some
choppy conditions for the Lake Ontario nearshore waters west of
mexico Bay...but waves should remain below small craft criteria.

As we work through the weekend...the flow will veer more to the
northeast. The moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterlies will
then direct the choppiest conditions to the nearshore waters west of
Irondequoit Bay...and particularly in the waters from Manitou Beach
to Olcott.

Otherwise...winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory
levels into Monday.





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