Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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041
FXUS61 KCLE 251347
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over North Carolina will track northeast along the
Atlantic coast today drawing a cold front east across the local
area. High pressure will build across the region tonight
and Thursday ahead of a cold front that will move east across
the region on Friday. A second cold front will quickly follow
Friday night as another low drops across the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough moving across Michigan this morning. This
will slowly cross the region through the day with areas of
drizzle and light rain ahead of it. NW ohio still looks like
they should see some sunshine by mid afternoon.

Only made minor changes to the forecast to reflect current
trends.

Original...Low pressure over North Carolina will track
northeast to New Jersey by evening. Moisture over the region
early today will get pulled east with the low through the day as
high pressure builds in from the west. Low level moisture
however will be slow to exit. Will keep clouds in the east
through the day and break up clouds west during the afternoon.
Will begin with likely to categorical pops east and chance pops
elsewhere for light rain. For the afternoon will drop the east
to a chance and remove pops west. Overnight, both the NAM and
GFS hold onto low level moisture northeast while drying out the
rest of the area. Based on this will hold onto clouds
east/northeast much of the night with clearing continuing
elsewhere. For Thursday again both models actually expand 850mb
rh 80% or better across the area although given high pressure
will be over the area will side with the optimists and go with
PC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A southern stream system that largely bypasses the Ohio Valley
Thursday will shift across the Appalachians and move to the mid-
Atlantic coast Friday. That will leave high pressure weakly in
place across the local area Thursday night. A weak cold front,
lacking in moisture and much lift, will cross the area on
Friday. This may bring an isolated or scattered shower with it.
It has been consistently advertised as having limited impact. A
stronger shortwave digs into the base of the trough across the
Great Lakes later Friday. This has a little more potency and may
bring a shower to northern OH/nw PA Friday night into Saturday
morning. Then Sunday we begin the transition to ridging aloft
with high pressure at the surface. Temperatures will be near
normal Thursday night/Friday, slide back some for Saturday and
then begin to warm for Sunday. Sub- freezing lows are possible
Saturday night across northeast OH/nw PA especially if we get as
much clearing as we are expecting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early next week is looking to be terrific. High pressure sets
up across the southeast U.S./Bermuda by Tuesday. The ridge aloft
builds into Tuesday and southerly flow will bring much warmer
temperatures to the region. Precip will stay out of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low pressure over North Carolina will turn northeast and move
up the east coast today. Moisture associated with the system
spreading light rain and drizzle, mainly KCLE east, with MVFR
and IFR restrictions across the area. Most IFR was across
western OH, west of an inverted surface trough. Am expecting the
IFR to spread east this morning as the trough pulls east out of
the area. Expecting a mix of MVFR and IFR this morning with
conditions lifting to MVFR most places late morning into
afternoon. Expect improvement to VFR from the west mid/late
afternoon but further east restrictions will likely persist into
the night tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR tonight mainly east half.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog will remain on the lake until the cold front across
southeast MI crosses today. That cold frontal passage will shift
winds around to the north-northwest and increase them to 15 to 20
knots for a short time this afternoon/evening. This will be enough
for a short small craft advisory across the central third of the
nearshore waters this evening. After this brief uptick in winds
conditions settle with high pressure shifting over the lake for
Thursday/Thursday night. A weak cold front crosses the lake Friday
followed by another late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This
will make for a little chop across the east half of the lake on
Saturday. High pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and lower
lakes for Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ145>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman



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