Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261018
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
618 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley today. A cold front will move east across the region
on Friday with a secondary cold front early Saturday. High
pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley and southeast states
by early next week providing a southwest flow of much warmer
air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...Will add patchy fog west for the morning. Also made
minor sky changes due to the changing stratus pattern.

Original...High pressure and dry air are building in from the
west but as usual, stratus has hung up across northeast OH and
nwrn PA early today. An encouraging sign however is that the
stratus has been quite dynamic, having expanded late
evening/early in the night and now breaking up in places. Would
expect this stratus to break up rather rapidly this morning with
partly cloudy/mostly sunny skies expected today. Tonight a cold
front will approach from the west and by 12Z friday, should be
near the northwest corner of the state. To our southeast, low
pressure will move from GA into the Carolinas. Expecting dry
conditions with frontal moisture not yet into the area and
moisture associated with the Carolina low remaining southeast of
the area. Friday the main issue will be the cold front passage.
Not a lot of moisture with the system so will keep pops below
50 percent. Best chance in the west from late morning into early
afternoon. further east mainly afternoon into early evening.
Temps a few degrees below normal but getting close...!

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave energy will dive into the base of an emerging Great
Lakes/New England trough for the weekend. This will bring a
compact low across the lower Great Lakes. The GFS and NAM are
similar in a track across Lakes Erie and Ontario while the ECMWF
tracks it further south across central OH. The area of showers
is accordingly shifted. Bring 50-60 percent shower chances
across the area between Friday night and Saturday. Some degree
of showers may linger well into/through Saturday with the upper
low overhead. Temperatures aloft cool through the day Saturday
and by nightfall, it will be cold enough for any lingering
precip across nw PA Saturday night to be snow showers. This
system will pull highs Saturday back into the 40s. Saturday
night a number of locations will see freezing temperatures. Some
recovery expected across the western and southern counties
Sunday as the high begins to build in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The advertised ridge to build across the southern U.S. and up to the
lower Great Lakes is not forecast to be as strong as earlier
suggested. Matched or went slightly warmer than guidance as has been
the case with sunny days lately for Monday through Wednesday. There
is one ripple in the flow across the ridge early Tuesday, but this
should have little impact on sensible weather. Will continue a dry
forecast through Tuesday and bring in chance PoPs for
Wednesday/Wednesday night as heights begin to lower.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure and dry air will continue building into the area
today. MVFR stratus off Lake Erie affecting primarily KERI KCAK
and KYNG early this morning and expect it to mix out and
dissipate quickly this morning. Otherwise skies are clear.
Expecting some mid level cloud increase overnight east from low
forecast to be in the Carolinas Friday morning. Also expect some
mid/high level cloud increase west as cold front approaches
towards morning, however, expect VFR through the night.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers Friday into Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be overhead today and winds will be
light/variable and gain an onshore component this afternoon. Winds
will remain light/variable with the approach of a weakening cold
front for Friday. Low pressure will round the base of the lower
lakes Friday night. The gradient will increase on Saturday as the
low moves across Lake Ontario. The northwest flow that results may
be enough to necessitate small craft advisory conditions. This
enhanced northwest flow may last into Sunday. By Monday, though,
high pressure will be overhead, centered across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman


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