Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181126
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
726 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking out of the Plains will move across Central
Ohio tonight, then to the New England coast on Thursday. A large
area of high pressure will build southeast out of Canada reaching
the Great Lakes region to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to timing
of clouds and temperatures early this morning.

Surface high pressure is in place to start the day with stratus
lingering across roughly the northern half of the area. Low level
winds will develop out of the south today with clouds
eroding/lifting from the south. Most areas will see a window of
sun before clouds increase as a warm front lifts north into the
area ahead of low pressure approaching from the Plains. Clouds
are expected to thicken through the afternoon. Dry low level air
will delay the onset of precip until late afternoon with
showers expanding from west to east between 4 and 9 PM.

By tonight, low pressure will reach Central Ohio then quickly shift
east as a compact upper level wave approaching from the west merges
with energy moving around the back side of the east coast trough.
Precip type will remain rain through the evening before cold air
wrapping into the back side of the system allows for a transition to
snow. Expecting fairly good precip rates given the dynamic system
aloft which should allow for a complete transition to snow and even
some light accumulations. Snowfall totals range from less than an
inch in NW Ohio to around 2 inches in portions of the snowbelt with
locally higher amounts in NW PA. Counties closer to Central Ohio
may only receive trace amounts of snow. Deeper moisture pulls
away quickly on Thursday but expect to see snow showers linger
in the snowbelt through at least the morning and into the
afternoon for inland NW PA.

Temperatures today will range from the lower 40s near the lakeshore
to around 50 in many of the southern counties. Thursday will be
cooler downwind of Lake Erie with NE Ohio and NW PA in the 35-40
degree range while NW Ohio reaches the mid 40s with skies
clearing in the afternoon. Seasonal norms are near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A relatively quiet period weather-wise is shaping up for the end of
the week into the weekend, as a broad upper trough over the eastern
Great Lakes moves east away from the region and high pressure slowly
builds into the region from the west. Some lingering lake effect
snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly
across NW PA, until moisture becomes limited as 850mb temps begin to
warm. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected across the forecast
area through Saturday night. Below normal temperatures are expected
through the period, with little airmass moderation expected as the
surface ridge becomes centered over the central Great Lakes and
north/northeast flow curtails any appreciable WAA. Lows will range
from the mid 20s to low 30s Thursday night into the low to mid 30s
by Saturday night. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s
across northwest PA to around 50 degrees across northwest Ohio.
Highs on Saturday may be a few degrees warmer, ranging from the mid
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are finally hinting at a warm up in the extended, as broad
ridging over the Great Lakes Sunday moves east into New England by
Monday night. A cutoff upper low will track east from the lower MS
valley into the southeast US Sunday through Tuesday, but should stay
far enough south to bring little more than clouds to the area
through the long term period. WAA will begin to ramp up into the
region as the low moves into the southeast US and the ridge axis
moves east of the Great Lakes, with some moderating temps
approaching normal values Monday, and possibly a few degrees above
normal in some areas by Tuesday. Models are showing a positively
tilted upper trough digging into the Great Lakes by midweek, with a
surface cold front pushing into the area, and surface cyclogenesis
occurring across the region. This will increase precip chances across
the region, but should hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday
at this point. Highs on Sunday in the low to upper 50s will warm
into the mid/upper 60s inland (upper 50s/low 60s near Lake Erie) by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Stratus deck extends across the Central and Eastern Great Lakes,
bisecting the area with MVFR clouds at northern and eastern
sites. The lower clouds will gradually scatter out towards midday
as southerly flow develops. Satellite imagery shows another
areas of clouds associated with a warm front that will lift
north into the area this afternoon. Rain will develop along the
warm front from west to east between 21-03Z...eventually mixing
with and changing over to snow showers from north to south as
colder air is pulled in on the back of the low pressure system.
Ceilings will decline to IFR overnight in snow showers.

Light westerly winds will shift to the south then the east
during the daytime hours on Wednesday, eventually increasing out
of the north overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again late Wednesday night and
Thursday, lingering in NE Ohio and NW PA into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds still hovering around 10-20 kts across the eastern half
of the lake will bring waves of 3 to 6 feet for another few hours,
so have extended the small craft advisory from Willowick eastward
until 8 AM. High pressure will briefly work east across the lake
today, with winds becoming light and variable through the afternoon.
Low pressure tracking east just north of the Ohio river valley today
and tonight with bring increasing northeast winds tonight, becoming
northerly in the 15-25 kt range by Thursday morning. A small
craft advisory will again be needed Thursday. Winds will slowly back
northwest through Thursday afternoon and will become 10-20 kts
Thursday night, subsiding to 15 kts or less through the day
on Friday as high pressure begins to build across the lake. Winds
will become light and variable Friday night through the weekend with
high pressure overhead, becoming predominantly easterly Sunday night
into Monday as the ridge moves east of the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Greenawalt


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