Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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798
FXUS61 KCLE 230735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Through mid week low pressure from over western Tennessee will
drift east-northeast making it to West Virginia and eventually
moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast. A cold front will drop
across the Great Lakes crossing the local area on Wednesday
morning. High pressure Thursday will be followed by a second
cold front for the week on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered northeast of the region will keep the
area dry through late afternoon. Low pressure across western TN
will drift toward the Ohio Valley over the next two days.
The northern fringe of showers will make it to central Ohio
later today as winds shift to the southwest. Areas from Mt
Vernon to Marion will see showers first. The dry easterly
component flow will hold it off for the rest of Ohio until
tonight. Northwest PA will likely wait until Tuesday.

The lake influence will be held closer to the immediate shoreline
today as winds come around to the southeast. Cloud cover will
steadily increase and thicken as the day wears on. Guidance
temperatures clustered fairly close in the upper 60s and lower
70s and cannot disagree. Now Tuesday with showers around, these
will be held back by 8 or 10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Tuesday night with models in decent
agreement showing surface low pressure over eastern KY with a
developing reflection in the Carolinas. By 12Z Wednesday the
eastern low takes over as it reaches near DC. By Tuesday night,
the best moisture inflow to the system should be focused east of
the region however still looking at a moist system with
sufficient wrap around to provide showers Tuesday night.
Moisture begins to shift east Wednesday however an approaching
upper trough should slow eastward progress enough to hold onto
chance pops Wednesday and Wednesday night east. The new GFS
however is drier Wednesday night so may be able to remove pops
if trend continues on the ECMWF. Thursday and Thursday night
high pressure and drier air move through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday models bring a cold front through as an upper trough
drops across the Great Lakes. This system doesn`t look very
strong at this point so will keep pops in the chance category.
Temps a few degrees below normal. Friday night will continue
with chance pops dealing with the cold front. Saturday the GFS
bring weak low pressure through the lakes while the ECMWF has it
on Sunday. With disagreement, will keep pops at slight chance.
Temps near to a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Largely VFR for the next 24 hours. Low pressure over western TN
this morning will drift northeast through mid week. High
pressure to the northeast of the region will hold off the lower
conditions and the showers closer to and after 06Z Tuesday.
Findlay and Mansfield likely to see a shower first. Prior to
that, intervals of high clouds will overspread and begin to
slowly thicken and lower through evening. East- northeast winds
will shift to east-southeast with minor gusts. Figure will have
a lake breeze at ERI and get close to CLE Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible from late Monday night through
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated with the period. Today, high
pressure will loose it grip over the eastern lakes as it drifts off
the east coast and low pressure moves from the lower Ohio Valley to
the DC region. Winds will remain from the east to northeast through
Tuesday and then back to north and northwest Wednesday behind a cold
front. Highest winds during the period will come Wednesday with this
northwest flow likely reaching about 15 knots so nearshore waves
will likely reach at least 3 feet if not a bit higher. Northwest
winds will subside Wednesday night and back to southwest Thursday
and remain mainly southwest Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...TK



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