Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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801
FXUS61 KCLE 222301
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New York and southwest Ontario will move east
into New England by Monday morning as low pressure moves into
the mid Mississippi Valley. The low pressure center will move
east into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and off the DELMARVA
coast on Wednesday. Meanwhile a cold front will move southeast
across region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast low temperatures tonight may be a few degrees too
cool. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and
the low to the south is enough that the breeze may not die down
much and the boundary layer will stay mixed. Dew points are low
though, in the 20s, so I did not make major changes, just nudged
the forecast mins up a couple of degrees in some areas. Lows
mostly in the 40s tonight, not far from normal. No other changes
for the early evening update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
A ridge of high pressure over the region will shift east as low
pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley moves east and
gradually spreads clouds and moisture into the region. Tonight
will be fair and cool and a few degrees warmer than last night.
Short term models are in fair agreement in moving showers into
the region Monday night especially in Ohio. Low level winds will
veer from the northeast to the southeast and lesson the cooling
influence of Lake Erie on the lakeshore. Gradual warming of the
aloft will allow for further warming of the boundary layer into
Monday but some increase in afternoon clouds will limit the
warming. Still, readings will climb to near normal or slightly
above. Clouds and moisture Monday night will help keep
temperatures up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The models continue to trend faster with the main features and
showers should be ongoing at daybreak Tuesday.  An upper level
trough will be responsible for this precip.  This feature will drift
east across the region Tuesday and will be along the East Coast by
midday Wednesday.  The models are in decent agreement with the main
features so confidence level is a little better than average today.
All areas will see a period of likely wording before the precip
winds down from west beginning late Tuesday night.  Took a close
look at things and see no need for thunder.   By Wednesday evening
most of the area will be dry as another area of high pressure builds
over the region from the northwest. This will high dominate on
Thursday. Wednesday will be a cool day but temps will rebound to
near normal for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Timing of the next system still in doubt.   GFS continues to be the
faster of the models moving the front through Friday into Friday
night. The ECMWF a little slower today, moving the system
through Friday night into Saturday morning. For now will
superblend the temps and keep chance pops Friday into Saturday
morning. After that high pressure builds in with a gradual
warming trend. Temps should warm to near seasonal by next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue with patches of high clouds
tonight and increasing mid/high clouds on Monday as low pressure
south of the area drifts eastward. Winds were a little gusty
near the Lake Erie lakeshore and will lighten up a bit tonight
and veer from NE to SE. The southeast winds could get a bit
gusty Monday afternoon at all TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible from late Monday night through
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather the next 30 to
36 hours.  Easterly flow will become southeast on Monday as the
surface ridge shifts to the East Coast.  Mainly southeast winds will
then continue till an inverted trough moves east of the area Tuesday
night. Winds will become northerly on the backside of that feature
and small craft headlines may be needed by Wednesday. Winds will
lessen Wednesday and may actually become light and variable for a few
hours as another high crosses the region. Southerly winds will
develop on Thursday.  A cold front will cross the region on Friday
with the flow returning to the west then northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kubina



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