Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220311
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1111 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Lake Huron will move off the New England
Coast overnight. This will allow low pressure to track NE across
the Lower Lakes Tuesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday
and linger through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dropped the severe thunderstorm watch for the local area.
Strongest storms have moved east and weakened. Made some major
changes to grids to decrease threat for showers and
thunderstorms over the forecast area for the overnight hours
from west to east. Expecting POPs to increase in the east as
cold front arrives in time for day time heating. Still a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon over
eastern half of the area.

Previous Discussion...

Showers and thunderstorms near the IN/OH border will intensify and
move across the forecast area this evening, ahead of approaching low
pressure system.  SPC has most of area in marginal risk with area SW
of FDY-MFD-MT Vernon line in a slight Risk. Low pressure West
Central IL will track into the Central Lakes overnight, lifting
a warm front, now across Central Ohio, across the forecast area.
Dew points south of the front in the lower 60s so capes will
approach 1000 j/kg across the southern portion of the forecast
area this evening. Combined with approximately 30 knots of shear
and some lift from 300mb jet will be enough to sustain
convection tonight. Setting up to be a marginal wind event, but
with the warm front cant rule out the chance of an isolated
tornado.

Low forecast to be SRN Lower Michigan by daybreak with cold front
extending into SERN IL.   The front will track east dragging the
cold front across the forecast area tomorrow. showers will
linger across the east half of the area tomorrow morning. The
potential for more convection tomorrow afternoon/evening will
depend upon how much debris clouds insulate area tomorrow
afternoon. Everything should move east of the forecast area by
tomorrow evening, as high pressure builds in from the West.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will expand south into the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday, slowly shifting to the Mid-Atlantic through Friday. Dry
conditions with low humidity expected Wednesday and Thursday before
dewpoints starts to creep back up with southwest flow on Friday.
Some clouds may linger into Wednesday morning but will scatter out
through the afternoon with increasing subsidence. Temperatures will
drop back a few degrees across the eastern half of the area on
Wednesday into the lower 70s, with mid 70s still likely in the west.
A warming trend will resume on Thursday with lots of sun and heights
building aloft. By Friday most of the area will be in the 80s except
for the northeast lakeshore. Raised highs on both Thursday and
Friday but they may even need to go a little higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models indicate that we should be between storm systems Friday
night. A weakening cold front will settle into the central Great
Lakes on Saturday with an increased chance of thunderstorms,
especially Saturday evening into Sunday. Models are struggling with
how far south the frontal boundary will move on Sunday. By Monday
the boundary will be lingering over Ohio with an increase in Gulf of
Mexico moisture a possibility. We will watch this potential over the
next week.

Saturday looks to be the warm day of the long term with most
locations warming into the 80s. Still warm on Sunday but with
increased cloud cover near the frontal boundary highs should range
from the mid to upper 70s north to around 80 south. Cooler Monday
with highs range from the upper 60s NW PA to the upper 70s NW OH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A series of issues going on with this forecast period. A weak
wave of low pressure with a warm front extending east will
affect the local area tonight. Thunderstorms formed just south
of the warm front with showers extending northeast toward
Cleveland. Strongest storms are occurring south of the warm
front. Expecting all of the activity to move east across the
area tonight and then gradual improvement around sunrise from
the MVFR conditions. Expecting low ceilings and visibilities in
fog around sunrise in the morning and then becoming VFR during
the late morning hours. Possibility that clouds will drop to
MVFR or even IFR after 00Z tomorrow night at Cleveland.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Aside from the potential for thunderstorms tonight and again over
the weekend, generally good marine conditions expected on Lake Erie
this week. Northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots are in place across Lake
Erie this evening but will shift to the south overnight as a warm
front lifts north of the lake. Winds will shift to the north late
Tuesday as low pressure moves to the east and pulls a cold front
south behind it. High pressure will expand across Lake Erie on
Tuesday, pulling a weak cold front back south. High pressure will
build southeast into the Great Lakes region Wednesday then to Mid-
Atlantic coast through Friday. A cold front will sink south across
the lake over the weekend. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC



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