Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181356
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
956 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Our brief visit with high pressure will come to an end early
today allowing low pressure to move into the Tennessee valley.
Moisture will increase across the region this afternoon and
evening ahead of the approaching low. The low will continue
north tonight and should move across the region on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Area of showers near Marion will continue to drift to the
northwest through the morning. After this area passes it appears
there will be isolated to scattered showers, maybe a few
thunderstorms. Current thinking is that the easterly flow will
erode much of the shower activity across NE OH and NW PA through
the afternoon.

Area soundings support highs approaching 80. However with cloud
cover and the isolated/scattered showers across the western
half of the area we will not go that warm. Northeast flow off
the colder water on the lake will also keep the lakeshore areas
much cooler. So we have made some tweaks to highs for the day
with most inland locations nudged up a couple degrees.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure to our north will loose its influence on the
region as it drifts east. This will allow weak low pressure to
move into the Tennessee Valley. Deeper moisture remains south of
the area through mid morning however as the low moves into the
Tennessee Valley 850mb winds will veer from east to
south/southeast pulling this moisture north across the area.
Believe the morning will remain dry for the northern half of the
area. Further south will have pops increase to chance by noon
and through the afternoon will increase to likely. The low will
continue to approach the area tonight, eventually moving across
northern Ohio on Saturday. A warm front will move north ahead of
the low. Will keep pops likely to categorical both periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over western Lake Erie Saturday night will track
northeast into Nova Scotia by Sunday morning. Showers and a few
storms are expected, mainly east of I-71 after 00Z Sunday, with
likely pops currently forecast through the night, dropping to slight
chances across far NE OH and NW PA by Saturday morning. Sunday
should be dry for a bulk of the day across the area, however much
uncertainty exists beginning Sunday night through Monday night as
latest model solutions have diverged. The 00Z ECMWF takes low
pressure east from the Plains across the southern Great Lakes Sunday
night through Monday night, with a warm front lifting north through
the area late Sunday night through Monday. This is fairly consistent
with previous runs. However, the 00Z GFS keeps the low over the
Plains and the warm front southwest of the area, with high pressure
building over the Great Lakes into the local area Sunday night
through Monday. Have trended the forecast towards the ECMWF, however
kept pops in the mid chance range Sunday night through Monday night
given the uncertainty. No major changes to temperatures, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s for most, and a bit cooler near the lake.
Lows will generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower confidence long term forecast given previously discussed model
differences, however have continued to side with the ECMWF solution
for the long term period. The low tracking across the Great Lakes
Tuesday will push a cold front out of the area by Tuesday night,
with some lingering low chance/slight chance pops. High pressure
will slowly build southeast across the Great Lakes into the Mid
Atlantic region Wednesday through Friday, with dry conditions
expected across the area. Only minor changes to temps, with highs in
the mid/upper 70s through the period. Went a bit cooler with temps
Wednesday night through Thursday night with the cooler Canadian
high building through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Guidance is a bit more optimistic this morning vs last night
regarding restrictions later this afternoon and even into the
overnight. Conditions are VFR this morning and expect that to
persist for the remainder of the morning. MVFR CIGS should move
into the area from the south this afternoon as low pressure
moves into the TN vly. Have taken MFD and FDY to MVFR between
18 and 21Z. MVFR to overspread the remainder of the area after
00Z. Guidance continues to show northeast to east flow
increasing to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts through the
afternoon and into the evening.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR Saturday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Water levels continue to rise across the west basin of Lake Erie
with the northeast winds. Have gone ahead and issued a lakeshore
flood warning with levels potentially reaching 7 feet above low
water datum.

Previous Discussion...
Northeast winds will continue to increase through the day as high
pressure builds across western Quebec and low pressure develops
across the Tennessee valley. Winds will peak this afternoon in
the 20-30 kt range, and have continued the small craft advisory.
Lakeshore flooding is also a concern across the western basin
today. Latest water levels in Toledo have been hovering around
60 inches above low water datum, and forecast levels show an
increase to near 72 inches above low water datum this afternoon.
Have opted for a Lakeshore Flood Watch today, with some
uncertainty that the levels will get any higher than 72 inches
with peak winds generally 30 kts or less. The greatest potential
for lakeshore flooding will likely be for the Islands and
Sandusky Bay. Winds will subside as the gradient weakens tonight
as the Tennessee valley low moves northward towards the lake.
The low will move northeast across the lake Saturday night.
Another low is currently expected to track east across the
southern Lakes Monday and Tuesday, with high pressure building
across the lake for the remainder of the week. After tonight,
winds will generally be variable and less than 10 kts through
next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-
     007>009.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.