Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 212250
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
650 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Great Lakes will drift east over
the remainder of the region this weekend and then shift to eastern
New York and Pennsylvania on Monday. Low pressure will remain
nearly stationary over the Tennessee Valley region Monday and
Tuesday and then move east to the Carolina coast by Tuesday
night. A trough will extend north from the low into the local
area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Made a few minor changes to the hourly temperatures, dew points
and sky cover through early tonight based on current trends but
no significant changes to the overall forecast. No other
changes for the early evening update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
Lot`s of high clouds spilling into the area at the moment.
These clouds will persist through the evening and may actually
thicken for a time...especially across the southern end of the
area. By daybreak these clouds will be on the decrease as BUFKIT
shows the mid layers really drying out. Sunday will end up
being a mostly sunny day with clear skies Sunday night as the
high passes to north. Temps will continue a slow upward climb.
The added sunshine should help things along. Expect another lake
breeze to develop by midday so temps will be quite a bit cooler
near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high pressure will dominate the region on Monday
bringing slightly above normal temperatures...with highs in the low
to mid 60s. These above normal temperatures will be short lived as
an upper low shifts slowly northeast toward southern Ohio Monday
evening from TN and KY. This upper low will bring rain to the area
as early as Monday evening. Rain will continue on and off across
central and northern Ohio as well as northwest PA through Wednesday.
It doesn`t look like the rain totals will amount to much...generally
between a quarter and a half inch between Monday night and
Wednesday.

A cooling trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday...with
temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models coming into a little better agreement for Wednesday night and
Thursday.  Models track system East of the forecast area Wednesday
night with high pressure building over the area Thursday.   After
that the models diverge significantly.   GFS moves the next cold
front through Thursday night while the ECMWF has ridge anchored over
the area and does not move the front through until early Saturday
morning.   For the forecast I superblended the temps.  Previous
forecast had high chance pops Friday and Friday night.   Saw no
reason to flip flop forecasts with so much doubt this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue. A veil of high clouds spilling in
from a large area of warm advection across the midwest will
persist much of tonight but will slide south and east of the
forecast area on Sunday. A general northeast flow will continue
as surface high pressure moves across eastern Canada. The lake
breeze will enhance the wind just a bit near Lake Erie on
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A generally good stretch of marine conditions expected through
Thursday, although water temperatures remain quite cool near 40
degrees. A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region
will build to the New England coast through Monday. Light winds
today will become easterly at 10-15 knots on Sunday, allowing waves
to build to 2-3 feet in the nearshore waters on the west end of the
lake. Easterly flow continues through Tuesday before finally backing
to northeast as low pressure moves up the East Coast on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Riley



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