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000
FXUS61 KCLE 200517
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
117 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will move through the area late tonight
into Saturday. High pressure will build across the region late
Saturday through Monday. A low pressure system will move east
through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, followed by a stronger area
of high pressure by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
this update. Still expect some high clouds with a small chance
of sprinkles over the next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion..
Quiet and cool weather is expected through the near term
period. A weak mid-level shortwave will bring an area of mid-
level cloud cover and perhaps a few light rain showers/sprinkles
this evening. Otherwise, a weak secondary cold front/surface
trough will traverse the Eastern Great Lakes on Saturday,
ushering in a much cooler air mass Saturday night, characterized
by 850 mb temperatures falling between -6 and -8 degrees C.
Think there is a good chance that a portion of the interior will
experience brief freezing temperatures Saturday night as the
boundary layer decouples in addition to some partial clearing.
Less of a chance to see freezing temperatures across far NE OH
and NW PA with continued onshore flow and lake- effect cloud
cover.

Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s
tonight, with highs struggling to reach the 50s on Saturday
combined with blustery winds gusting to 25 to perhaps 30 mph at
times in the afternoon. Low temperatures will fall further into
the 30s Saturday night, as mentioned in the above paragraph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cool surface high pressure influences from the southwest control the
Monday weather with westerly winds, a fair amount of sun, but cool
readings in the upper 50s west to lower 50s east into NW PA. Winds
ease going into Sunday night with lows forecast for lower to mid
30s, and another potential for frost across the area and even a
freeze in portions of the PA counties. Airmass modification and
slight 850mb temperature recovery in modest low level warm air
advection into Monday bumps up the temperatures to the mid 50s-lower
60s range and continued dry weather into Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm air advection continues into Tuesday ahead of the next low
pressure system that still is exhibiting significant operational
model spread in both timing, track, and magnitude of the system. The
overall trend is cooler into midweek with the cold front moving
through either Tuesday or Tuesday night, a Wednesday night frost
risk, and temperatures back down into the 50s for the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected to continue through the TAF period. A scattered
cumulus deck will likely develop Saturday afternoon but with
low dew points cloud bases should be 5000 feet or higher. West-
southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots early this morning, shifting
west-northwest and increasing to 12 to 18 knots with gusts 25
to 30 knots after sunrise. Winds diminish and shift more west-
southwest at 4 to 8 knots this evening and tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday. Non-VFR may
persist into early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Another weak cold front tonight will increase winds out of the west
to 15-25kts with wave heights responding and building to 3-6ft for
most of the day Saturday. Winds become northwesterly 15-20kts
Saturday night allowing for a slight decrease in the wave heights to
2-4ft, then become southwesterly Sunday 10-20kts, taking the higher
wave heights mainly offshore. Winds become offshore Monday,
increasing out of the southwest Tuesday 15-20kts ahead of the next
cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26