Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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562
FXUS61 KCLE 200708
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
308 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front along the south shore of Lake Erie will drift to
southern Ohio and then stall later today. An area of low
pressure over the Plains will move east along the stalled
frontal boundary on Monday. High pressure will move into the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front has pushed south of Lake Erie and should exit the
area to the south this morning. The front will stall over
southern Ohio later today and then move little through Monday.
Just a few showers remains at the southeast tip of the area and
these should be gone by daybreak. Latest satellite imagery shows
stratus and strato cumulus developing in the wake of the cold
front. These clouds will linger over the area into this
afternoon. It is possible some instability showers will develop
downwind of the lake this morning but coverage should be small.
Northeast to flow will develop over much of the area by 18z.
This is a dry flow for the area and any threat for additional
showers will quickly end. This NE flow should also keep the area
dry tonight and have removed all mention of precip. Even on
Monday there is some question as to how far north and east any
precip will get as low pressure heads east from the Plains.
Right now best chances will be along and south of the U.S. 30
corridor. Even there will go no higher than chances wording. NE
OH and NW PA should stay dry through Monday evening. There will
however be a lot of cloudiness on Monday.

Temperatures will be interesting the next couple of days with
the flow off of the lake. There will likely be a large
temperature gradient from north to south across the area. Have
stayed to the cool side of guidance today...especially near the
lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Monday night with models showing weak low
pressure over IL that moves east and reaches into northern Ohio by
Tuesday morning.  Low pressure eventually drifts southeast out of
the area by Wednesday as high pressure builds south into the area.
High pressure will be over the area on Thursday.  Will have high
chance to likely pops for monday night through Tuesday morning.
Highest pops will be southeast.  Tuesday night we could see a few
lingering showers or thunderstorms east/southeast before midnight
with drying after midnight. Wednesday through Thursday will continue
with a dry forecast with the high across the area.  Highs a few
degrees above normal at roughly 75 to 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure over the
area and a continuation of dry weather that should last through
Friday. Saturday through Sunday will have chance pops for showers
and thunderstorms.  Models are not in perfect agreement but both the
GFS and ECMWF show low pressure moving through the lower lakes with
moisture surging north into the area ahead of the low Saturday and
the system likely dragging a cold front through the area Saturday
night or Sunday. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Just a few showers remain across the area. A cold front making
slow progress across the area is responsible for the precip. The
front and showers should be gone by daybreak. Skies most places
remain VFR but expect widespread MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR
to develop overnight. It will take till midday before things get
back to VFR. It is possible there could be some instability
showers downwind of the lake this morning but confidence is too
low to mention in the TAFs. SW flow will become W right behind
the front and NW this morning. High pressure will build over
the region this afternoon and that will cause the flow to become
NE most areas.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible Monday through Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light through Thursday with no headlines expected.
Although east to northeast flow is expected Monday at 10 to 15
knots...generally, flow will remain 10 knots or less through the
entire period. Waves will be 2 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK



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