Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201550
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1150 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build slowly east across the
Great Lakes this weekend, settling over New England Sunday night
into Monday. Low pressure over the Tennessee valley will track
northeast into the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold
front will push east across the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only minor adjustments to temps and dew points with update.
Temperatures, similar to yesterday, are coming in about 2 deg
warmer than guidance. Continued with this trend for this
afternoon. Full sun is playing its part in warming the surface.
The onshore lakebreeze is also keeping temperatures cooler along
the lakeshore counties.

Prev Discussion...
An expansive area of high pressure centered over the upper
plains will provide fair weather today. Despite full sun, temps
aloft remain below climatological normals which will only
support surface temperatures in the 50s west and 40s east. The
onshore NW flow will keep cooler temperatures downwind of the
lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry stretch of spring weather with gradually warming temperatures
can be expected during the short term as high pressure over the
Great Lakes builds to the New England coast. Saturday night will be
chilly with another night of good radiational cooling conditions.
Sunday will see a slight increase in east to northeast winds off the
lake which will keep areas near Lake Erie several degrees cooler
than inland locations. By Monday, southeast flow will develop on the
back side of the surface high and temperatures will climb into the
60s for most locations. Some high clouds will start to return to the
area on Monday as an upper level low slowly drifts north from the
Tennessee to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above mentioned upper level low moving from the Ohio Valley towards
Pennsylvania will be responsible for increasing moisture and the
next chance of showers by Tuesday. Best chances for precipitation
remain focused southeast of the area as the surface low quickly
moves to the east coast so will keep chance pops low. Will need to
continue with a chance of showers through mid-week as the next upper
level trough moves into the Great Lakes region and merges with the
first system. Given the increasing clouds and chance of showers will
expect temperatures to drop back a few degrees during the second
half of the week. The ECMWF is a little more aggressive with the
amount of cold air accompanying this trough while the GFS does not
bring a real cold front through until Friday. At this time will hold
off on cooling temperatures down late in the week until models come
into better agreement with timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure and a dry air column support VFR conditions across
all terminals. Full sun today will lead to mostly clear skies
tonight. Winds remain out of the north, with mixing supporting
some gusts around 15-20 mph briefly this afternoon. Tonight
surface will decouple and winds will go calm. A few of the
guidance models try to show a brief period of BR at CLE/ERI, but
believe that any low lvl moisture will materialize as frost and
not obstruct vsby.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure expanding across Lake Erie today winds will
remain northerly around 10 knots. Waves will be choppy early
this morning for a couple more hours with conditions steadily
improving through the morning. By this afternoon, waves will
generally be in the 1-3 foot range. A good stretch of marine
conditions expected to continue into next week as a large area
of high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes region.
Easterly winds of 10-15 knots on Sunday may result in some
choppy conditions on the west end of the lake but overall not
too bad aside from the cold water with temperatures still near
40 degrees.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Jamison
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...KEC


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