Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260516
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
116 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending west into the Ohio Valley from the Mid
Atlantic Coast will slowly weaken tonight and into Saturday as
low pressure slowly drops into the western Great Lakes. Saturday
afternoon a weak disturbance aloft will move through the area.
Sunday the disturbance will move east as high pressure aloft
builds in from the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Made some updates to temperatures and cloud cover as convection
to the west continues to spill some high level cirrus into the
forecast area. Otherwise, no other significant changes with
this update.

Previous...high pressure extending west from the Mid Atlantic
coast will continue to keep skies clear through the evening and
early tonight. A disturbance in the upper midwest will track
east overnight, likely bringing in mid and upper level broken
ceilings by morning across the west. Expecting more low level
moisture in place on Saturday and as the upper level disturbance
moves closer am concerned about the potential for
afternoon/evening convection. Models indicate li`s -3 to -5
although best instabilities still remain to our west and south
through the afternoon. Still, will continue with chance pops.
Will begin in the west during the morning and expand across the
entire area for the afternoon. Saturday evening the best chances
will be east as drier air moves into the west. Will taper to
slight chance extreme east/southeast after midnight. Lows in the
low to mid 60s. Highs Saturday low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A surface trough passing through the area on Saturday night will
clear much of the area out for Sunday. A drier airmass with less
cloud cover will allow for temperatures to soar well above normal.
Therefore, have continued the trend with temperatures higher than
guidance for Sunday. Could see an isolated shower/storm that would
be diurnally driven but lack of forcing will make it isolated at
best. Another front will push through the area Sunday night and
stall just south of the area, bringing an even drier airmass into
the region for Monday, allowing for Monday to be the warmest day of
the holiday weekend. With ridging aloft and a tropical system
cutting off moisture to the south, difficult to see any convection
developing for Monday or Tuesday and will go with a dry forecast.
Increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system will make Tuesday
somewhat cooler than Monday but will still push the temperature
forecast above guidance as there is no reason why mid 80s aren`t a
possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Plenty of weather to watch for the long term over northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania. The extended guidance depicts an upper
trough over the northern Plains by Tuesday morning with Subtropical
Storm Alberto over the Gulf coast region. The extended models differ
greatly on the strength of the trough and tropical system and
therefore differ on what will impact the weather for our region. The
GFS solution keeps the remnant tropical system to the south and east
of our area and in turn keeps the upper trough and surface low from
the plains further north into the northern lakes. This would give
our area some wet weather at some point but any weather would be
mostly disorganized. The ECMWF solution has a weaker tropical system
that would be more easily absorbed into the upper level flow. This
would bring the remnant system over the region and plenty of rain to
deal with. At this time, will go with a blended solution of guidance
but will need to monitor for what will probably be a wet long term
forecast period. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal during
the long term, but perhaps still a couple degrees warmer than the
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High level cirrus continues to spread east toward the local area
at this time well in advance of convection west of the area.
Expecting an area of showers and thunderstorms to slide east
across mainly the southern two thirds of the local area today in
response to vigorous shortwave trough and associated positive
vorticity maximum. Northern portions may escape convective
activity as lake breeze develops and keeps activity to the
south. Upper level feature will move east of the area this
evening and reduce threat for precipitation. Keeping visibility
and ceilings VFR through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally a pretty good weekend for marine activities on the shores
of Lake Erie. High pressure over the area will persist tonight and
into Saturday allowing for light southerly winds. A surface trough
will move across the lake on Saturday night bringing a chance of
showers and storms for Saturday. However, once this trough clears,
benign weather will continue for the next several days. A weak front
will cross the lake Sunday night into Monday, allowing winds to be
light and variable as high pressure settles in north of the region.
Waves will be 1 to 2 feet through much of the forecast period. No
marine headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Sefcovic



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