Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210305
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1105 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong surface high pressure will slide across the Great Lakes
this weekend with gradually warming temperatures through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Made a few adjustments of a degree or two or three on the
overnight lows trying to emphasize the colder spots. We should
be able to radiate well as dew points are low and winds will be
light. The ENE (or ESE) wind might try to stay up in favored
spots and that could be the exception where it does not
radiate as well. No other changes for the overnight update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will settle
closer to the Great Lakes tonight continuing fair weather
conditions. The clear skies and light winds will support
decoupling overnight. This will favor temperatures below
freezing in most areas away from the lake, which could produce
some patchy frost. Temperatures will fall fairly quickly after
sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast challenge will be temperatures for the next few days
as the area remains under high pressure and fair weather. Though
warming temperatures each day, look for below normal highs for
this time of year for both Saturday and Sunday. Temps look to
top out in the upper 50s/around 60 both Saturday and Sunday,
slightly warmer on Sunday as temps warm aloft. This will however
feel mild compared to the extensive cold spell over the last
few weeks. The dry air column will also support mostly sunny
conditions though some clouds are expected along a weak H750
boundary Saturday afternoon mainly over the western counties.
Winds on Saturday will be of a northerly direction and northeast
by Sunday. The onshore winds will keep the lakeshore
communities cooler than their inland counterparts with highs in
the mid 40s immediately downwind and mid 50s further inland.
Have added a few degrees to the afternoon highs as guidance has
been cooler than observed the last few days. For overnight lows
have gone a few degrees cooler than guidance with the
expectation of decoupling and strong radiational cooling under
mostly clear skies. Believe areas of frost will be possible
again Saturday Night/Sunday morning.

The ridging aloft will crest on Monday with thicknesses and se
flow supporting the warmest temps in the forecast period, upper
60s. A cold front will sag towards the area Monday Night
however precip chances aren`t particularly high given dry
airmass and weak forcing. An area of low pressure moving south
of the area Tuesday will support some scattered showers and an
expansive cloud shield. This will keep temperatures in the upper
50s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We will have a pair of systems to iron out the details for in the
long term. One shortwave will cut across the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Wednesday into Thursday drawing in and absorbing the earlier
upper low tracking across the Gulf Coast states. Will maintain the
chance for showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Then a
stronger shortwave and possible accompaniment by colder air looks to
cross the area later Friday. Temperatures will start out mid week
close to normal and then have gradually brought temperatures back
in the wake of these two systems.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue. High pressure over the central
Great Lakes will drift toward the eastern Great Lakes. High
cloudiness will increase on Saturday. Light winds will become
NNE again on Saturday. Frost likely early Saturday.

OUTLOOK...VFR until Wednesday, then non-VFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Little concern over the lake over the next few days as strong
high pressure moves overhead into this weekend. Looking for
variable wind directions as the high gradually moves east into
early next week, but generally wind speeds should be around 10
knot or less. Afternoon lake breezes will impact the nearshore
with slight enhancements to the winds which could reach 15
knots. Weather should remain fair with few clouds and good
visibilities.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Jamison



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