Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231939
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast
through Friday. Weak low pressure will move through the Central
Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A dry airmass will remain overhead through the near term as high
pressure overhead slowly builds to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dewpoints
are coming down and given the favorable cooling conditions tonight,
expecting lows to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures
at 925mb are expected to warm by about 3 degrees on Thursday and
will combine with full sun allowing many areas to surpass the 80
degree mark. Lake breezes are expected to develop during the
afternoon keeping lakeshore areas closer to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. High pressure over
the Lower lakes moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday setting
up south flow across the forecast area. Temperatures soar into
the mid 80s most places and upper 80s NW OH on Friday. Models
coming into better agreement moving a weak cold front across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. Expect some scattered
-tsra to develop with the front, but for now will continue with
low chance pops. Front moves east of the area Saturday night,
but upper trough swings across area Sunday so will continue with
low chance pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary should be moving across the area Sunday night
into Monday. Some evening convection on Sunday will be possible. The
better chances will be on Monday when a weakening cold front crosses
the region. Currently it looks like it will be scattered coverage.
High pressure takes control of the area by Tuesday and will linger
into Tuesday night. Moisture levels increase on Wednesday. It is
uncertain if the upper level ridge will break down enough to have
all that much convection on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies
expected through the TAF cycle. The only exception is in the
next couple hours near Erie, PA where IFR stratus near the
lakeshore will be near or briefly impact the airport. Most sites
will experience northerly winds of 10 knots or less, becoming
variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible by Sunday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on the Lakes into the weekend. large
area of high pressure centered over the Western Basin of Lake Erie
will slide slowly east, then move off the east coast Friday.  Weak
south flow sets up on the lake Friday as high shifts east.   Winds
turn to the west late Saturday as a weak cold front moves across the
lake.  Scattered thunderstorms possible but wind should stay below
small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB


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