Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201359
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front along the south shore of Lake Erie will drift to
southern Ohio and then stall later today. An area of low
pressure over the Plains will move east along the stalled
frontal boundary on Monday. High pressure will move into the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Areas of drizzle ending. Update reflects minor tweaks to sky and
temperatures.

Previous discussion...The cold front has pushed south of Lake
Erie and should exit the area to the south this morning. The
front will stall over southern Ohio later today and then move
little through Monday. Just a few showers remains at the
southeast tip of the area and these should be gone by daybreak.
Latest satellite imagery shows stratus and strato cumulus
developing in the wake of the cold front. These clouds will
linger over the area into this afternoon. It is possible some
instability showers will develop downwind of the lake this
morning but coverage should be small. Northeast to flow will
develop over much of the area by 18z. This is a dry flow for the
area and any threat for additional showers will quickly end.
This NE flow should also keep the area dry tonight and have
removed all mention of precip. Even on Monday there is some
question as to how far north and east any precip will get as low
pressure heads east from the Plains. Right now best chances
will be along and south of the U.S. 30 corridor. Even there will
go no higher than chances wording. NE OH and NW PA should stay
dry through Monday evening. There will however be a lot of
cloudiness on Monday.

Temperatures will be interesting the next couple of days with
the flow off of the lake. There will likely be a large
temperature gradient from north to south across the area. Have
stayed to the cool side of guidance today...especially near the
lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Monday night with models showing weak low
pressure over IL that moves east and reaches into northern Ohio by
Tuesday morning.  Low pressure eventually drifts southeast out of
the area by Wednesday as high pressure builds south into the area.
High pressure will be over the area on Thursday.  Will have high
chance to likely pops for monday night through Tuesday morning.
Highest pops will be southeast.  Tuesday night we could see a few
lingering showers or thunderstorms east/southeast before midnight
with drying after midnight. Wednesday through Thursday will continue
with a dry forecast with the high across the area.  Highs a few
degrees above normal at roughly 75 to 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure over the
area and a continuation of dry weather that should last through
Friday. Saturday through Sunday will have chance pops for showers
and thunderstorms.  Models are not in perfect agreement but both the
GFS and ECMWF show low pressure moving through the lower lakes with
moisture surging north into the area ahead of the low Saturday and
the system likely dragging a cold front through the area Saturday
night or Sunday. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
As expected widespread MVFR cigs and patchy IFR cigs have
developed. Have also seen some patchy drizzle develop downwind
of the lake. Do not think this will last long but it could
impact KCLE for a couple of hours. Winds will gradually go from
NW to NE today and as it does the low levels will dry out.
Expect cigs to be back to MVFR by midday most areas and by mid
afternoon a lot of the area should be VFR. Will likely see BKN
cigs persist tonight. Any precip tonight should stay south of
the area.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR possible Monday through Tuesday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light through Thursday with no headlines expected.
Although east to northeast flow is expected Monday at 10 to 15
knots...generally, flow will remain 10 knots or less through the
entire period. Waves will be 2 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.