Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261754
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will lift into the western
Great Lakes region today before exiting toward James Bay tonight.
This system will pull a warm front through the region this
morning followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure will
build in late Wednesday and remain in control through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12:40 PM Update:
Planning to let the Wind Advisory expire at 1 PM, though will
likely put a Special Wx Statement up for part of the area for
continued gusty winds. While the low-level jet is gradually
weakening, that is being offset somewhat by steepening low-
level lapse rates as temperatures gradually warm from the west.
Continued gusts of 35 to 45 MPH (perhaps locally touching
advisory-criteria of 46 MPH at times) will be likely this
afternoon, mainly along and west of I-71.

Regarding the severe wx potential from the west this evening,
satellite shows a lack of stronger clearing upstream and hi-res
models agree than mixed-layer and surface-based CAPE should
remain less than 250 J/KG and 500 J/KG respectively. Despite the
strong shear, this should keep any tornado potential under
control. In fact, the latest SPC outlook has removed the 2%
tornado probabilities that were originally impinging on the I-75
corridor. Still, good agreement that a forced line of low-
topped convection will take shape across Northwest OH along the
cold front later this afternoon into this evening and spread
into our western counties after 5 or 6 PM. Forecast soundings
show a lingering 40-50 knot low-level jet as the line spread in
and convective cores could bring that to the surface, even if
the convection is low-topped and relatively weak. Given this,
there is still potential that we need to issue a few convective
Special Wx Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this
evening. Overall, the SPC Outlook depicting just a Marginal Risk
for severe weather in our western counties continues with the
only real hazard being straight-line winds continues to be
reasonable with no current signs that things are off track.

Previous discussion...
The two main impactful weather concerns for the near term
forecast will be the gusty winds today, especially during this
morning, and the marginal threat for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northwest
Ohio.

We have rain showers quickly moving in from the west and
southwest this morning associated with a warm front. We have
some very dry air in the low levels this morning over the area.
Dewpoint depressions are very high between 30 and 40 degrees
ahead of the advancing rain showers. Relative humidity values in
the upper teens and 20s which is very dry. It will take a
little time before the atmosphere saturates this morning and
rainfall reaches the ground. It may initially start out as
sprinkles before steady rain showers move in for the morning
commute. With the low level dry air, evaporation in the lower
column will also chance or bring down some higher wind gusts
this morning as the showers progress from west to east.
Southerly winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40
or 45 mph possible, especially for areas west of I-71 through
the rest of the morning and midday. As of right now, it appears
to stay below wind advisory criteria for our western Ohio
counties. We will continue to mention the stronger gusty wind
potential in a SPS this morning. Local effects from downsloping
near Erie County PA will continue through late this morning
with localized wind gusts up to 50 mph possible. We will
continue that Wind Advisory until noon today.

The rain showers will advance into far northeast Ohio and NWPA
midday through the afternoon. There may be a slight lull or
break in the rain chances for areas of northwest Ohio this
afternoon before the actual cold front starts to enter into NWOH
this evening. There is a marginal to slight risk for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in a broken line of
convection along the advancing cold front late this afternoon
and evening across northwest Ohio. High temps will be coolest
over NEOH and NWPA in the lower to mid 50s. Milder temps will be
over NWOH this afternoon in the low 60s.

This severe weather setup will be a high shear and weak CAPE
type environment with low topped convection along the front.
0-6km Bulk shear values are very high 80 to 90 knots. 0-3km CAPE
will be between 100-150 J/KG. 0-1km storm relative helicity
values will be up to 250 M2/S2. The main severe weather hazard
will be isolated damaging wind gusts but an isolated tornado
threat can`t be ruled out for northwest Ohio early this evening.
The time window for NWOH will be between 22z and 02z. The
convection is expected to weaken to a line of rain showers by
the time it pushes eastward towards the I-71 corridor around 03z
this evening.

Rain showers will end from west to east overnight across NEOH
and NWPA with passage of the front. High pressure will build in
tomorrow with cooler weather and temps in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday night, a surface high is expected to build east over
the area, bringing a much drier airmass and a break in precipitation
through Friday. This will also allow for plenty of peaks of
sunshine. Overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will be a
bit cooler than the start of the week, dropping to near freezing
across the area. Highs on Thursday will be more seasonal, reaching
into the upper 40s to low 50s before temperatures warm a bit more on
Friday with highs across the western counties climbing into the mid
to upper 50s.

By Friday night, the aforementioned high pressure will begin to
shift east, allowing a weak warm frontal boundary extends east over
the area from a parent low centered over the Upper Midwest. With an
area of upper level divergence coupled with a vort max pushing east,
there will be enough support for shower development Friday night,
although most showers should remain rather light. In addition, with
a southerly flow becoming established across the area, lows will only
drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As discussed in the short term period, a low pressure centered over
the Upper Midwest will continue to bring showers to the area through
Saturday as an associated cold front is expected to push east
Saturday night. This system continues to look pretty weak in nature
with only 0.05-0.1" of QPF expected in total.

On Sunday, a brief ridge of high pressure looks to nudge north
across the area allowing for a brief hiatus in precipitation as
another low pressure system develops over the central US. This low
will extend a warm front towards the area Sunday night which will
mark another chance of precipitation. The overall track of the low
is in good agreement amongst models as they take it from the central
US northeast through the central Great Lakes region with the center
of the low expected to move just west of the western lakeshore. The
biggest discrepancy is the timing of the progression of the low, but
either way, the start to next week looks to be a wet one.

Highs through the periods will linger in the 50s with the area
seeing the warmest temperatures on Monday. Overnight lows will drop
into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A mix of MVFR and VFR early this afternoon. A slug of rain will
impact far eastern OH and northwestern PA, including CAK, YNG,
and ERI later this afternoon into the early evening with
prevailing MVFR conditions (due to both ceiling and vsby)
likely. Otherwise, should see any non-VFR briefly return to VFR
across northwestern and north central OH this afternoon in a dry
slot ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will
move through between about 23 and 6z from west to east, with an
accompanying line of showers and storms. Greatest chance for
storms with the front is at TOL and FDY but could occur as far
east as CLE and MFD. The front will likely bring non-VFR
ceilings and vsby. Thunderstorms can bring brief IFR vsby and
gusty winds in excess of 40 knots, especially at TOL and FDY.
Skies will likely bounce between VFR and MVFR behind the front
into the day Wednesday as stratus rotates in.

Southerly winds will continue to gust 25 to 35 knots through
early this evening. Gusts will subside after 22z outside of any
showers and storms along the cold front. Winds will shift more
southwesterly at 8 to 14 knots behind the front tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist into tonight as
a low pressure system centered over the Midwest tracks east into the
region. For today, winds will remain out of the southeast at 20-25
knots across Lake Erie, with local enhancement of winds from
Conneaut to Ripley due to downsloping. The highest waves will stay
isolated to the northern lakeshore, keeping wave heights of 2-4 feet
across the nearshore waters. A cold front will begin to move east
across the lake near 00Z Wednesday, marking the gradual weakening to
10-15 knots and shifting of winds to be out of the west-southwest by
Wednesday morning. To account for these conditions, a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through midnight tonight.

High pressure will build east over the region late Wednesday and
will linger through Friday. This will allow winds to remain from the
west-northwest at 5-10 knots. On Friday night into Saturday, a weak
warm front will approach the southern lakeshore before a low
pressure center tracks east along this boundary on Saturday. With
the low moving through, wind directions will be variable at 5-10
knots before becoming sustained from the northwest at 5-10 knots
Saturday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Campbell


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