Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201039
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
639 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build slowly east across the
Great Lakes this weekend, settling over New England Sunday night
into Monday. Low pressure over the Tennessee valley will track
northeast into the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold
front will push east across the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No changes with the early morning update.

Original discussion...
Quiet weather is in store for the region today through Saturday
as a large area of high pressure builds east into the Great
Lakes and Ohio valley regions. Mostly sunny/clear skies are
expected today/tonight, with some high clouds streaming across
the region on Saturday, associated with low pressure over the
Plains. Highs today will range from the low to mid 40s across
northeast Ohio and northwest PA to the mid 50s across northwest
Ohio, similar to previous forecast highs. Went a few degrees
cooler for low tonight with clear skies and calm winds allowing
for good radiational cooling. Lows will be in the mid 20s to low
30s across the area, with some of the traditionally cool spots
possibly radiating into the low 20s. Highs on Saturday will
range from the upper 40s/low 50s north, near Lake Erie, to the
mid/upper 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure this weekend with ridging aloft will support
quiet weather over the region. The primary forecast challenge
will be temperatures for lakeshore counties. H850 temperatures
remain around 0-2C for both Saturday and Sunday, cool for this
time of year. On Saturday the flow will be light and out of the
north, turning northeast by Sunday. The intrusion of the
maritime air will create a tight temperature gradient within
those lakeshore counties. Moisture will be limited but can`t
rule out some afternoon clouds, especially west. Lows will fall
back into the 30s each night, likely supporting a frost Saturday
Night if skies remain clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Sunday Night the pattern begins to shift. A deepening low over
the Gulf States will move east, with the surface high over the Great
Lakes moving into New England. The flow out of the SE will warm H850
to around 6C, with increasing thicknesses aloft. Temperatures Monday
will likely reach the mid to upper 60s before moisture/clouds begin
to move in Monday Night. The large temperature gradient between
inland and the lake (lake T in the lower 40s), combined with
relatively light se winds, will favor an afternoon lake breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as a large area of
high pressure builds across the regions. North/northwest winds
will prevail through the day, with winds becoming lighter and
variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie was situated between surface high pressure over the upper
plains and low pressure off New England at the time of this
issuance. The tight gradient between these features was shifting
east into PA/NY allowing winds to relax starting in the western
basin. Will drop the small craft for the far western marine zones,
with improving conditions from west to east this evening. The NW
flow has produced waves around 4-6 feet, highest east, that will
take through late tonight to recede. The surface high will build
over the region Friday and linger into Sunday supporting favorable
conditions on the lake into early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...KEC



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