Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 210732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
332 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018


Dry forecast looks to persist for about the next week as dominate
area of high pressure over Ontario and Quebec keeps a hold over the
Great Lakes, providing a continuous feed of dry and cool air into
the region.

Currently we are situated in between the aforementioned high and a
surface low over West VA with the main impact being gusty northeast
winds due to the tightened gradient. Winds will gust to around 20
knots through most of the afternoon before relaxing as upper level
trough axis passes over the area, gradient weakens and flow backs to
more northerly. There remains a non-zero chance of seeing a snow
flake or two near the Ohio border as the outermost mid level
moisture/deformation bands rotates north over extreme southern MI.
So far the wealth of low level dry air is keeping the precip to our
south where the stronger 850mb forcing has set up. Ceilings have
failed to fall much below 7kft yet, with only a few hours to go
before the system pulls the deformation eastward. Clouds will linger
through much of the day before clearing out late tonight. Lows should
once again dip down into the low/mid 20s assuming the clouds clear
early enough.

Surface high expands back across the Great Lakes and Midwest while
short wave mid level ridge slides over Wednesday through Thursday.
Clear skies and weak northerly flow will keep the area cool both
days with Thursday coming in a couple degrees warmer due to
increasing heights aloft as western ridge starts building into the
region. Convergent flow aloft will ensure Friday remains dry and
sunny yet again. The next shot of precip was being advertised as
Saturday but models have all trended south with the system in part
due to a strengthening of the already broad and strong surface high
over Canada. The next shot of precip will now hold off until Tuesday
as a longwave trough sweeps across the region.



Moderate northeast wind will continue through the morning and then
begin to back and diminish during the afternoon. This will occur as
low pressure moves from the Virginias to the Atlantic coast and
allows high pressure to settle over the western Great Lakes. By
tonight, small craft advisories will only be needed for outer
Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron due to lingering northerly flow
and resulting higher waves. High pressure is then projected to
settle over the region Thursday and bring lower waves to all areas
through Friday. The next low pressure system will arrive in the
central Plains and Midwest by Saturday and will likely track south
of the Great Lakes. If so, then a repeat performance of moderate
northeast wind will be possible during the weekend.


Issued at 1200 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018


Prevailing northeast flow will sustain dry low level conditions
through the TAF period.  While a thickening canopy of high cloud
will lift into the region tonight, this will ensure skies remain
clear across the lowest 7-8k ft through Wednesday. The exception
remains near MBS, where a narrow strip of stratus continues to funnel
off Saginaw Bay. This will maintain the potential for periodic MVFR
conditions at this terminal. Firm northeast winds overnight turn
gusty again with diurnal support Wednesday.

For DTW...Winds hold from the north-northeast /010-030 direction/
tonight, gradually easing in both magnitude and gust frequency.
Gradual backing of winds to north and north-northwest throughout
Wednesday. Skies to remain clear across the lowest 5000 ft through


* None.


MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.




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