Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 141742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
142 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018


Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A weak area of high pressure will move in today...diminishing the
snow showers. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives by Thursday
from the north. This will act to keep the weather colder than
normal through the end of the week with below normal


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Overall the pattern will remain relatively quiet into the end of
the week. Models are in agreement in showing a surface ridge
moving in from the west today. The subsidence associated with
this feature will support diminishing snow showers and cloud

A cold front drops down from the north northwest tonight. Not much
moisture is with this it should be dry frontal passage
for most locations. There is some potential for the lake effect
to redevelop behind the front Thursday. Cloud tops are shown to
only reach 5k to 6k feet and its only those tops which are shown
to barely reach the DGZ. Still somewhat early to say how much if
any snow falls...but for now I will keep some relatively low POPs
going for the NW CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

We are looking at a dry and increasingly mild period for the first
portion of the long term. The upper trough that has been sitting
over the region this week will push east of the area, and allow the
upper ridge to our west to approach. The ridge will get beaten down
a bit as strong energy diving across the SW portion of the country
tries to lift toward the area.

The models have been fairly consistent in shunting this trough to
our south with the NW flow holding steady. The cold air lifting out
will allow the moderation in temps. 40s look likely for highs Sat
and Sun, with 50 not out of the question.

The potential is increasing some for the second portion of the long
term from late Mon through Tue to be a bit more unsettled and cooler.
The trend in the models has been for a little bit better chance for
pcpn making it up into the area. It is a similar setup as the Sat
system where energy if lifting up into the area and trying to break
the ridge down.

This time, the ridge doesn`t look at strong and it has a better
chance of reaching up into the area. we still have chc pops in, but
the chc has been increased some. This will likely continue to
fluctuate a little as we approach the time frame. Cooler and drier
air flowing in from the NE will bring more of a chance of snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

High Confidence for VFR through at least 06Z. Cloud deck with
ceilings in the 4000-6000 ft AGL range will spread south into
southwest Lower MI around or shortly after 06Z. We currently do
not expect IFR or even fuel alternate ceilings (below 2000 ft AGL) to
be an issue even after 12z.


Issued at 1247 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

River levels will continue to fall into next week. The Portage River
near Vicksburg is the only site remaining above flood stage and has
a history of falling very slowly. A fairly dry weather pattern will
develop this afternoon and last into next week.




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