Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

An area of high pressure will build in from the northeast today.
This fair weather system will act to keep the weather dry and
unseasonably cool. Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley late
tonight into Saturday. The bulk of the precipitation with this
system is forecasted to stay south of the Michigan Indiana border.
Thus the dry weather pattern is expected to continue.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Clouds were drifting down from the north early this morning. High
Res models show that they will break up as they move into the
Grand Rapids to Lansing area. Radar does show a few returns in
these some flurries could be falling out of them at
this time. Based on the extent of these clouds...and no trend in
them breaking up...I will start the day off with clouds for much
of the region...diminishing through the morning.

Tonight the low pressure system off to the west will be headed
east...moving up the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Overviews on Bufkit
show the atmosphere here in MI will be very dry. Guidance suggest
this low will be weakening with time. Based on this...will
maintain the mainly dry forecast for the region. The Kalamazoo
area could see some light snow out of this late tonight...but that
potential has been decreasing with each model run.

Easterly winds here in MI on Saturday...typically supports the
highest temperatures for the western part of the CWA. Will feature
the relatively warmest values along and west of a Grand Rapids to
Big Rapids line. With a very dry airmass in place...another cold
night looks likely for Saturday night. The drying continues into
Sunday as easterly flow out of Ontario continues.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

No real warmth is in site through Thursday, however the period will
largely be dry.  The only weather maker appears to move in for
Tuesday night and exits by Wednesday evening.

NW flow will continue to dominate the region into early next week as
an upper low moves across the Southern Plains.  The upper low
becomes more baggy as it weakens when it moves toward the Ohio
Valley. The system should be battling a dry NE flow over the region,
so pcpn chances will possibly move into the area by Tuesday night in
the form of snow.  A second upper trough appears to move in by
Wednesday night.  This should prolong the chance of snow until the
trough is through.

It will stay cool through the period, with only a slight warm up on
Tuesday as the first system approaches.  Colder air is then
reinforced by the second upper trough for Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The area of MVFR clouds impacting most of the TAF sites at this
time will break up over the next couple of hours as a drier
airmass moves in. Thus VFR weather is expected for the afternoon
through the night. An area of snow may near KAZO late tonight from
the southwest...but it looks like it will remain just south of
that site.


Issued at 1032 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

River levels will continue to fall into next week. The Portage River
near Vicksburg is the only site remaining above flood stage and has
a history of falling very slowly. A dry weather pattern is expected
to continue into next week.




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