000
FXUS63 KGRR 180557
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
157 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

- A bit milder early next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The forecast is largely on track this evening. A few wraparound
rain showers clipped our northern areas earlier this evening, but
the rest of the night should be dry as post-frontal westerly winds
slowly diminish toward morning. There may be a brief window around
sunrise where we see some breaks of sunshine before mid and high
clouds associated with the next wave overtake our part of the
world by mid/late morning. Overall Friday will be dry but fairly
cloudy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

No changes to previous thinking here. After thunderstorms clear the
area later today, there could be some wraparound precipitation across
our northern zones lasting into early tonight. Otherwise, we should
be dry the rest of the night into Thursday afternoon, when a shower
or two may be possible.

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

The next possibility for rain will be associated with a very stretched
out cold front extending southwestward across the central CONUS. We
are in the exit region of a powerful upper jet during this time with
a lot of forced ascent potential. Indeed, HREF/SREF guidance both
advertise a chance for thunder across our southern zones. This activity
should exit by sunrise Friday morning.

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

Fair weather will return Friday through the weekend. It will
become much cooler as h8 temps fall to -7 to -9 C by Saturday. Highs
in the 50s Friday will decrease to the 40s Saturday - and Saturday
will feel quite raw as strong gusty winds drop wind chills into the
30s. Lows could fall to near or below freezing across portions of our
area early Sunday and Monday mornings as surface ridging builds in.

- A bit milder early next week

Temps will moderate a bit early next week back to near normal for this
time of year. Fair weather will continue Monday. A weak low pressure
system will bring a chance of rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Fair weather will return for the mid to latter portion of next week
as another surface high pressure ridge builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Broken to scattered MVFR cloud cover will prevail through the
remainder of the night, but some holes will be opening up,
especially towards daybreak. By noon most of the lower clouds will
have scattered out by mid level clouds will be streaming in and
rain is looking likely by evening as the next wave of low pressure
moves in. MVFR impacts are likely to return Thursday evening as
the low levels saturate once again and visibilities lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Hazardous winds and waves will begin to improve/diminish overnight
as the pressure gradient slackens. A 6AM end time for the small
craft advisory still looks on track.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AMD
DISCUSSION...Laurens/TJT
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...AMD