Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 281113
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
713 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and warmer

- Chance Of Precipitation Friday Night into Saturday

- Additional Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

- Sunny and warmer

High pressure over the Missouri Valley will nose northward today
resulting in plenty of sunshine. Rising heights from ridging aloft
will also push surface temperatures a bit higher than yesterday.
Highs today will range from the upper 30s near US-10 to mid 40s
near I-94. Tack on 10 degrees for Friday`s highs. Another cold
night expected due to clear skies and light winds; mid 20s
expected throughout the cwa.

The next low pressure system will affect the region Friday night.
However, as warm advection gets underway, clouds will begin
moving over the cwa Friday afternoon, dimming the sunshine a bit.
At this point, we anticipate precipitation holding off until
Friday night.

- Chance Of Precipitation Friday Night into Saturday

The first round of precipitation in the forecast is associated with
a surface low developing ahead of a mid-level wave. Ahead of this
low, precipitation develops on the nose of the low-level jet in
northern Illinois and moves east into lower Michigan. In general, up
to 0.25 inches of precipitation is expected, highest across the
southern CWA. Uncertainty exists at how far north precipitation
extends, however given northeasterly flow off of a canadian high
pressure system, a period of sub-freezing temperatures is possible
across our northeastern CWA Saturday morning. Guidance is spread on
how low temps get, however if precipitation occurs with temps below
freezing a period of light freezing rain is possible. Chances of
both measurable precipitation occuring and temperatures being below
freezing Saturday morning are around 20-30 percent across all 3
guidance suites. In addition, while the warm front will be south of
the area, a period of negative 850mb LIs exists early Saturday near
I94 bringing a low thunder chance. Precipitation ends later Saturday
as the low pulls away. A brief period of surface ridging then occurs
for Sunday bringing dry conditions.

- Additional Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Tuesday

The approach of another surface low Sunday night brings additional
precipitation chances that continue into Tuesday. Notable spread
still exists in the strength of the ridging across the area Sunday,
the track and tilt of the following wave Tuesday following a period
of zonal flow , and by extension the track of the surface low across
the region. This lends uncertainty as to the overall evolution of
the system which is not uncommon in zonal flow patterns. There are
even some signals (not strong at present given elevated spread) for
snow for at least part of the area. Overall, confidence is high in
precipitation early next week, but evolution of the system,
precipitation types, and temperatures are low confidence due to the
high degree of spread in solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High confidence in VFR through the TAF window with SKC predominant
with occasional FEW cirrus. Winds will be westerly to around 15
knots with occasional gusts over 20 knots today calming to less
than 10 knots after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

No changes to the Small Craft Advisory which runs until 6 pm.
Gusty west winds are still expected today through mid afternoon
before weakening. Wind and waves should fall below criteria by
early evening. No marine issues are anticipated through the
weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...04


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