Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 192354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
754 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 319 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Below normal temperatures will remain across the region through
much of the period with shot of colder air and a chance for light
accumulating snow arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
best chances southeast of a Marion to Paulding line. Dry
conditions will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Friday before
another system arrives for the start of the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Deep closed low will move from southern Missouri to northern
Kentucky by 12Z Tues. Mid March sunshine is helping overcome still
cold 850 mb temps either side of 0 C with surface temps in the
40s across the area. Cooler temperatures will begin to enter NW
areas later tonight into Tuesday with just a chance of some rain
or snow tuesday afternoon in far SE parts of the area. More active
weather will fall in the start and end of the long term forecast.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Trough will linger across the area into Weds as stronger wave
moves through and eventually ejects to east coast. Enough moisture
and lift will enter the SE third or so of the area with chances
for snow increasing. Some accumulations are expected with the bulk
of the snow falling Tuesday night. For the time being keeping
things in the 1 to 3 inch range generally southeast of a Marion to
Paulding Ohio line. Exact impacts for the Weds morning commute
remain to be seen as ground/road temps may still be near/above
freezing. Highs on Weds will struggle into the mid to upper 30s.

The snow will quickly exit by Wednesday afternoon as upper level
heights slowly increase and skies clear Weds ngt into thurs.
Temperatures will remain below normal with highs only in the 40s.
GFS continues to be way too warm through the period and also the
outlier with regards to the next system for the weekend that could
bring a decent shot for snow for much of the area. Lot of details to
sort out in the Friday night to Saturday time frame but something
to watch in the coming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Gusty east winds to continue this period as strong cyclone tracks
across the lower Ohio Valley through Tuesday morning. A few gusts
into the 25 to 30 knot range have been observed at KFWA early this
evening. Would suspect the higher end gusts to 30 knots will be
short lived to the next few hours as axis of stronger pressure
falls shifts east, but east gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range
will be possible through much of this period. Expansive precip
shield from southern Illinois into southern Indiana will make some
northward progress late tonight into Tuesday but stout easterly
flow will maintain a strong south to north low level moisture
gradient which should confine precipitation to areas south of the
terminals across east central Indiana into portions of northwest


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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