Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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581 FXUS63 KIWX 020941 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 541 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. - There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight, mainly northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Our forecast area lingers on the western periphery of an upper level ridge through the entirety of the period, with various shortwaves attempting to break it down as they progress eastward this week. This brings a lot of uncertainty to the forecast, which features low to mid range chances for showers and storms during at least a portion of each day this week. Added the greatest detail today into tonight, then went broader with pops beyond that, sticking close to the consensus beyond Saturday. Highs this week will be in the 70s and low 80s, with some locations (especially near Lake Michigan) in the upper 60s at times. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, for today we have a marginal risk for strong-severe storms in our northwest (hugging Lake MI), which is low confidence for our area. Have only 20-25 percent pops in the west half through 2 pm EDT, then increasing from west to east at around 20-40 percent from midday until late evening. A warm front will lift northward into our forecast area through the day, and by the 21-00z time frame tonight it`s draped from roughly Lake Michigan southeastward through Fort Wayne into Lima, OH. Depending on the model, storms may or may not develop along this front during the afternoon with warm air/moisture advection (not too impressive on the moisture). Some of the guidance, outside of a few morning showers, keeps us completely dry until 00-03z-with instability building in the warm sector to around 1500 J/kg. Towards the evening hours, the ridge begins to erode thanks to forcing from the approaching shortwave. This would probably be our best shot, if any, for severe weather, into the overnight. Bulk effective shear is strongest north of the front, with most of our area seeing less than 30 knots-so we`d be looking at isolated severe at best. Mid level lapse-rates are also a paltry 5-6 C/km, and forcing is generally limited until the cold front moves through late tonight into Friday. Overall in terms of the severe weather ingredients, things seem a little disjointed. The cold front moves through Friday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front-but not too impressed as far as stronger storms are concerned (a lot depends on how things go today/tonight). Despite better forcing with the cold front, we still have limited mid-level lapse rates and 300-700 j/kg sfc based cape ahead of the front (Depending on the model). A few weaker shortwaves move through this weekend, which will bring us low chances for showers and storms, but confidence is not high so kept capped around 20-45 percent (Focused along/south of US 24 by Sunday). Otherwise the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a much stronger system lifts into the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Light/calm winds will give way to southeast winds near 10 knots by mid morning in advance of a warm front. This warm front does lift through the area late this afternoon into tonight. Moisture return initially isn`t all that impressive with mainly dry/VFR conditions to persist through the day today. Remnant outflow from an upstream convective complex may aid in scattered shower/storm development this evening into early overnight near the front, especially at KSBN. Confidence in coverage/chances remains low however with a VCTS mention maintained. Better shower chances and high end MVFR to low VFR conditions arrive toward the end of the TAF cycle and just beyond as a slow moving cold front and deeper moisture arrive. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Steinwedel