000
FXUS63 KIWX 231732
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain overspreading the area mid to late morning. An
  isolated thunderstorm in southern Michigan possible this evening.

- Frost and sub-freezing temperatures possible Thursday morning.

- Windy and warm this weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Area of rain has moved in a bit faster, as well as a rather
tight cutoff to the NW (moreso than what was forecasted)
resulting in some modifications to pops. The leading edge of the
rain, as well as ahead of it, remained semi active with the
strongest cells producing some sporadic lightning and even a few
reports of pea size hail (including at our office). Also of note
on the NW fringe of this area of rain winds were mixing down
with a few gusts in the 30 to 35 kt range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Slightly slower and flatter solution aloft to potent wave
disturbance over nw MN this morning as it digs into nw OH by late
evening. Exit region of strong upper jet translating sewd of this
wave driving a deepening frontal scale circulation seen in upstream
composite radar across srn NE attm and expect rapid
development/expansion ewd through nrn MO/far srn IA into daybreak.
Thereafter band expands/overspread through nrn IN and into se MI by aftn.
Strong 00Z concensus has shifted primary rain band north from prior
and followed suit with highest stripe of pops for today. Dry slot in
association with upper wave wraps ewd this evening and may illicit
isold thunder in srn MI where a modest EML within mid lvl
dryslot overlaps residual but diminishing low level moisture plume.

Another brief but sig push of cold air follows in behind this sys
Wed esp east half in proximity to ern lakes centered thermal trough.
Guidance 2m temps are quite cold here and mostly below freezing in
proximity to sfc ridge axis.

Dramatic rebound follows as pattern aloft across the CONUS flips in
response to sig wrn troughing that develops long term with warm and
unsettled wx developing. Blend looks a bit pop rich yet will mainly
hold with it given considerable w-e spread on frontal position this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A quick-moving front is currently bringing rain to the area,
with the heaviest expected at FWA over the next couple of hours.
It will push eastward and away from the terminals by 24/00Z with
only lingering showers. Gusty southwest winds will shift to the
west this evening and then northwest later tonight. Mainly VFR
conditions expected today despite the rain, but MVFR ceilings
are forecast to move in as moisture gets trapped under the high
pressure inversion that will follow the front on Wednesday
morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Cobb