000
FXUS63 KIWX 141617
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1217 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing river flooding should gradually improve; however, the
  potential for heavy rainfall this upcoming week may once
  again renew river flooding with several chances for showers
  and storms in a very moist environment.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening southeast of
  Ft Wayne. The best chance for severe thunderstorms is Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Warm today through Wednesday with highs in the 70s. 80
  possible today. Turning cooler late in the week with a chance
  of freezing temperatures this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An upper level system over the Upper Midwest was dropping
southeast in tandem with a cold front and should reach the area
by early tonight. Ahead of this system, a unmodified elevated
mixed layer (EML) was already becoming entrenched over the
forecast area. Substantial/steep 700mb/500mb lapse rates from
8.0 to 8.5C/Km will provide an environment for potentially
stronger storms. However, the latest GFS trends include more
limited CAPE (under 1000 J/Kg) with a stronger cap at the base
of the EML. SPC earlier had removed the marginal severe storm
risk. There is a good chance fairly strong capping may partially
or completely inhibit storm development as indicated by most
CAMS.

For Monday into Thursday, it looks like the storm mode will
evolve into more of a heavy rain threat with tall but thin
CAPEs and high precipitable water values as the EML mixes out.
It appears the best chance for severe storms is late Tuesday
into Wednesday as strong negatively tilted trof with an
associated upper low reaches the area. SPC has updated the 15%
severe risk for the "old" Day 4 to a slight severe storm risk
over far southwest area including Monticello on the new Day 3.
Ongoing mainly river flood issues persist today across the
Upper Wabash especially south of Ft Wayne where several roads
remain closed from the Bluffton area down to Geneva. Some
improvement in the flood situation is expected before addition
rainfall arrives later this week. This additional rain may
aggravate the current situation. Otherwise, a cooler and drier
pattern change will begin late this week with as a longwave
trof axis sets up over east North America. Temperatures may drop
to freezing this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR/dry conditions expected to persist through the period.
Winds just recently veered to the wnw behind a sfc/lake enhanced
trough at KSBN. Gusty west-southwest winds will persist in
advance of this feature at KFWA through the afternoon, with
lighter winds and mainly clear skies otherwise into tonight and
Monday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel