Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270216
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
916 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...Low pressure and an associated cold front moving
through. Some showers will affect mainly the northern cwa through
late evening. Some clearing upstream should work in a little later
in the night.

PC

&&

.MARINE...Still looks like small craft conditions may set up for
Friday night into Saturday with northerly winds and subsequent high
wave action.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 647 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018)

UPDATE...All in all an uneventful frontal passage this evening.
Airmass quite dry. Meso models still hinting at spotty shower
potential mid to late evening. Upstream air immediately behind
the front still mild but things cool off a little more upstream.
Still looks like decent shot of shra/tsra for Friday with
vigorous 500 millibar wave riding through.

PC

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Mid/high level cloudiness across the area
ahead of cold front. Shower potential tonight likely to stay
across the northern or eastern cwa and be on the spotty side.
More coverage to shra/tsra on Friday as mid level energy moves
through.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday...Forecast confidence is high.

A weak cold front will sweep through the area this evening. The
front should reach Madison by 10-11 pm and Milwaukee about
midnight or 1 am. There`s a small chance of showers as this front
moves through...mainly north of Milwaukee and Madison.

Although winds will swing around to the north and be a bit gusty
for a time in the wake of the front tonight, winds will swing
back around to the south Friday morning in response to another
fast approaching low pressure system arriving Friday afternoon.

This is a potent, compact mid level short wave that will have a
quick and rather intense punch as it moves in. SPC has put the
area in general thunder. Low level lapse rates really steepen
ahead of this thing, with very dry conditions below 850mb. The NAM
is generating a high based CAPE of 500-1000J/KG later Friday
afternoon. Given the decent heating ahead of the low/front
arrival, we should see showers and a few storms develop and move
through, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. Considering the
dry lower levels, we could see a few gusts approach 25-35 mph in
any deeper convection. The best chance for rain will be across
southeast Wisconsin, tapering off to the west into south central
areas. No severe weather is expected.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

Cool high pressure will settle across the western Great Lakes for
the weekend. Saturday will be cool, but as the ridge slides east
on Sunday, southerly winds will begin to bring moderating
temperatures. Expect plenty of sunshine.

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A big pattern shift occurs early next week. We get into a warmer
southwest flow aloft. Temps on Monday should climb into the 70s
most places. As an upper ridge begins to slide farther away to
the east, we get closer to the expected train of disturbances that
will roll northeast in that flow, potentially bringing us chances
of showers and thunderstorms from time to time, beginning on
Tuesday. The first bigger mid level wave comes through Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Beyond this time, there is plenty of model
divergence, and timing becomes difficult. But, the bigger message
next week is warmer with a chance for showers and storms after
about Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
will sweep through this evening, reaching Madison around 03-04z
Friday and Milwaukee about 05-06z Friday. We could see a few rain
showers with the frontal passage, but mainly north of Milwaukee
and Madison. Winds will swing around to the north in the wake of
the front tonight, but shift to the south Friday morning in
advance of an approaching, fast moving low pressure system. That
low will bring showers and a few storms to the area during the
afternoon. Winds could gust to 25 to 30kts with any strong
showers/storms. There could be some MVFR cigs immediately in the
wake of the associated cold front Friday evening over southeast
Wisconsin.

MARINE...
Stronger northerly winds in the wake of a passing low pressure
system could bring small craft advisory conditions Friday night
into Saturday morning. The weekend is looking quiet under cool
high pressure. Southerly winds will increase next week with small
craft advisory conditions possible again Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Friday Night through Thursday...Davis



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