Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
854 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018


Skies remain clear across the area. There is a remote possibility
of seeing an aurora tonight due to the solar activity that
occurred on Monday. The peak period would be centered around 1
am. However, this may be limited to northern Wisconsin.

There are some clouds spilling southeast from Lake
Superior...associated with a weak mid level short wave. It`s
looking like they`ll stay scattered.

The forecast is in good shape.



The small craft advisory will be dropped. Winds and waves have
diminished sufficiently this evening.

Another small craft advisory may be needed for Thursday night into
Friday due to elevated north to northeast winds and waves.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 601 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018)


Forecast is on track for tonight. Just need to watch how much
cloudiness drops in from the north late tonight into Thursday
morning with the weak mid level wave clipping through. It looks
like it will stay scattered.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The west
winds will diminish quickly early this evening...veering more
northwest through the evening. We will be watching some clouds
expected to drop south across eastern Wisconsin late tonight
through Thursday morning. We expect them to remain scattered and
VFR, but they are close to the 3000ft level and they could go
broken for a few hours before quickly moving out. This would be
around 13-17z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 234 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018)


Tonight through Friday...Forecast confidence is high.

A few shortwave troughs will continue to dive sewd from Canada to
Lower MI through Thu. The first upper wave will aid in the passage
of a cold front late this afternoon into the early evening. A nly
sfc flow will take hold into Thu with a Canadian sfc ridge
building into the wrn Great Lakes through Fri. Plenty of sunshine
expected although a lake breeze will develop by late morning or
early afternoon on Thu, with a weaker but prevailing ely flow for
Fri. Temps will be near normal, but slightly cooler over far ern


Friday night through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A negative tilt shortwave trough will induce rapid cyclogenesis
over ern CO Thu afternoon with occlusion quickly taking place. The
weakening low will then track across the Lower MO River Valley
through the Ohio River Valley for Fri-Sat. Only small chances of
rain and snow spreading north into srn WI for Fri nt, although
higher chances in far sw WI. High pressure to then settle over WI
late Sat into Sun. Near 50F on Sun away from Lake MI.

A 120 kt westerly jet streak and associated upper trough will then
track across the central portion of the country for Mon-Wed. Srn
WI may be on the nrn fringes of this system with chances of light
rain and snow forecast.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR conditions this afternoon through Thu.
Gusty swly winds this afternoon will veer nwly late this afternoon
and early evening with the passage of a cold front. Few-sct035-040
stratocumulus may develop late tonight and last through Thu AM
especially toward central and far ern WI.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon and
evening as gusty wly winds develop and then shift nnwly this
evening with the passage of a cold front.

Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed Thursday night due to
brisk nly winds and building waves. The high waves may linger into


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.