Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
619 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


No changed at this hour. Lake effect clouds will continue to skirt
the shoreline of Lake Michigan through mid day or so, with
variable cloudiness expected in the lakeshore counties.



Northeast winds will become easterly later today, with east flow
continuing into tonight. VFR will prevail, with the only
exception being a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KMKE and KENW, as
lake effect clouds skirt the shoreline of Lake Michigan. Once
these dissipate later this morning, not additional aviation
hazards are expected.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 243 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018)


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

High pressure centered over far southwestern Ontario is nosing
south into the Great Lakes early this morning, with north to
northeast winds at the surface. With a good fetch down the length
of Lake Michigan, a few areas of lake effect clouds have developed,
and are occasionally making it far enough inland to affect areas
near the lake. Expect to see variable cloud cover continue near
Lake Michigan through the morning hours.

Surface winds will become more easterly with time today as low
pressure strengthens across the Plains. A considerable gradient in
temperatures is expected from west to east today, with locations
closer to Lake Michigan remaining in the low to mid 30s. Further
west toward Madison, expect to see highs top out in the low 40s.

Later tonight, precipitation will lift north toward the area from
central Iowa. The strongest lift will remain to our south, and
this precipitation will be fighting against very dry air in place
across the region. Right now, it looks like a band or two of snow
may just make it into the far southwestern corner of the forecast
area, producing a dusting to up to 1 inch of snow. This snow
should be confined to areas south of a line from Mineral Point to
Janesville. Snow is expected to begin after 9 PM, and should end
before sunrise on Saturday.


Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

A shortwave trough shears out to our south on Saturday, with rising
heights on Sunday as mid-level ridging builds across the central
CONUS. This will provide tranquil weather and clearing skies, with
seasonally mild high temperatures in the 40s on Saturday and around
50 on Sunday. Lakeside areas will be cooler than inland areas on
Saturday due to onshore easterly flow.

Monday through Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Ridging at the surface and aloft is largely maintained for much of
this period, with the exception of a weak mid-week trough
swinging through. The early week low pressure system now looks to
pass well to our south, with its associated precipitation confined
to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Look for cool temperatures for
early to mid week with the upper trough`s passage, followed by a
moderating trend later in the week.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update)...

A few areas of MVFR lake effect clouds are pushing their way
onshore early this morning, affecting ceilings at KMKE and KENW.
Variable cloudiness will continue at these two sites through most
of the morning hours.

Winds are expected to become increasingly easterly as the morning
goes on, and easterly winds will continue into tonight. Some light
snow is expected to develop across the far southern part of the
forecast area, but is currently expected to remain south and west
of any of the terminals.


Small Craft Advisory continues until mid morning today for high
waves in the nearshore waters. Winds will become easterly later
today, continuing into tonight. Despite the easterly flow, waves
should remain in the 1-3 foot range.

A quiet period of weather is expected for the weekend, with high
pressure moving overhead. Another storm system is expected to pass
south of the area Monday and Tuesday, and northeasterly winds will
likely increase across the region in response.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
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