Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
607 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Radar still shows a few light returns over Lafayette county, but
obs in the area are still dry. So, this is most likely just virga.
The stuff will linger for the next few hours before drifting south
this morning. Look for skies to clear from north to south through
the morning as well. In the end, the forecast is still on track.



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
generally be northeast 10kts or less.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 241 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018)


Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The dry easterly flow has done yeoman`s work in beating back the
northern progression of the precip shield associated with the low
pressure system passing by to the south. Overnight, the
precipitation has only pushed into southern Lafayette and Green
counties and it`s been very light, or even just virga. This will
all be gone by sunrise with skies clearing out this morning. A
nice day is on tap with highs ranging from around 40 near Lake
Michigan (due to the easterly flow off the lake) to around 50 by
Madison and areas west of there.

The quiet weather continues tonight. Clear skies and light winds
will allow temps to fall into the 20s again.


Sunday through Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

Quiet weather Sunday with high pressure over the region. Light
winds may allow for a lake breeze to develop while inland
temperatures reach the lower 50s.

The ridge will break down Sunday night and Monday as an upper low
closes off and drifts into the mid Mississippi River valley.
Northeast winds will bring cold air down Lake Michigan and across
all of southern WI Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Tuesday will be our chilly day with highs in the mid 30s and brisk
northeast winds. The weather will continue to be dry. Precip with
the next upper trough dropping into the Midwest looks like it
will dry up before it reaches southern WI. However, the 00z ECMWF
is showing a chance for light snow Wed night, so we will have to
watch this.

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The next upper trough is expected to dig through the Intermountain
West Friday into Saturday. The system will be able to tap into
some Gulf moisture, so the models are showing a large swath of
precip across the Midwest. The GFS looks a little warmer and drier
than the ECMWF and Canadian models for next weekend.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Any lingering
precipitation well south and west of Madison will push south by
10-12z this morning. Look for clearing skies this morning with
the clear trend continuing through the remainder of the period.
Winds will be east today, becoming light and variable this


Look for the easterly winds to diminish today, remaining light
into Sunday. Elevated and gusty northeast winds will likely bring
small craft advisory conditions from late Sunday night through
Tuesday night.




Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
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