Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
931 FXUS63 KMKX 010236 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 936 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing area of precipitation expected late this evening and overnight. - Additional rounds of showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday night, Saturday, and again next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 936 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Showers have progressed eastward into the area, with lightning looking very unlikely as storms in Iowa are on the downward trend. However, an isolated bolt is not out of the question in southwestern Wisconsin for the next few hours. Showers will continue to spread eastward, with CAMs indicating some filling in across east central Wisconsin as the low continues to occlude in northern Wisconsin. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: High clouds will increase late this afternoon and this evening ahead of a frontal boundary and associated area of showers and thunderstorms approaching from Iowa. We should mostly remain dry through at least 8-9 PM, before precipitation arrives from the west. Severe weather chances look low given very limited instability by the time anything makes it into southern Wisconsin, and it`s possible there is not even much in the way of thunder is left by the precipitation arrives in the Milwaukee area. Precipitation should end by sunrise on Wednesday, with dry air punching in behind the front. This will result in a quite a bit of sun tomorrow, helping boost temperatures into the 70. West winds will be quite breezy, with gusts of 25-35 MPH at times during the mid day and afternoon hours. High pressure builds in tomorrow night, with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: The baroclinic zone will sharpen up to our south on Thursday, and begin to lift back north as a warm front during the day. Showers and thunderstorms should expand in coverage north of the front during the day Thursday, as low pressure lifts northeastward through Kansas into Iowa and southern Minnesota. Some clusters of surface based storms are possible by late afternoon and evening, but at this point it looks like instability will be limited. Overall, not expecting an organized severe risk, but a few strong storms can`t be ruled out. Showers/thunderstorms should end Thursday night or early Friday, with high pressure building in Friday. Our fast, active pattern continues with additional rain chances Saturday as another shortwave sweeps through the area, followed by another shot for precipitation on Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures through this time period will generally be a little above average, with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 936 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. A few brief periods of ceilings around 2800 ft under showers remain possible, but only within the heaviest showers. Showers will spread eastward, with an isolated bolt of lightning remaining possible in far southwestern Wisconsin for the next few hours before the threat ends. MH && .MARINE... Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Southeast to south winds will increase tonight, as low pressure lifts northeast through northern Wisconsin. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected on Wednesday behind the departing low and as high pressure builds in from the west. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore from mid morning Wednesday through the afternoon. Another low will lift through Wisconsin Thursday into Thursday night, bringing breezy east to southwest winds to the lake. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM Wednesday to 5 PM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee