Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230843
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
443 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level lows over nrn
Manitoba and the lower Mississippi valley leaving ridging over the
nrn Great Lakes in the split flow pattern. At the sfc, a cold front
extended into cntrl North Dakota from low pressure over ne Manitoba.
Otherwise, ridging extended from New England through the Great
Lakes.

Today, With plenty of sunshine and mixing through fcst 850 mb temps
around 4C, a few degrees higher than Sunday, inland max temps will
climb into the mid to upper 60s. Light south winds of 5 to 10 mph
should delay or suppress the lake breeze off of Lake Superior which
will allow temps to also climb to around 60. However, onshore winds
off of Lake Michigan will keep temps in the upper 40s and 50s.
Similar to the last couple days, mixing should also drop dewpoints
through teens west and to the lower 20s east, with min RH values to
around 15 percent.

Tonight, although the cold front is expected to move through Lake
Superior and into wrn Upper Michigan, no pcpn is expected as little
moisture will be available with the weak qvector conv ahead of the
shortwave trough moving into nrn MN. Even with light winds, an
increase in mid/high clouds will limit radiataional cooling enough
to keep min readings in the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018

After the quiet stretch of weather that has settled over the area in
wake of strong storm a week ago, weather pattern should become
slightly more active this week as broad ridging/mild temps are
gradually replaced by northwest flow aloft and cooler conditions.
That said, chances for significant precipitation and any high impact
weather look minimal into next weekend.

One weaker shortwave trough/cold front moving through Tue aftn into
Tue night may result in scattered light rain showers, especially
south central. Should get warm again in the snctrl ahead of this
front with temps possibly pushing into the mid 60s from IMT into
interior of Menominee county. By time cooler air arrives behind the
trough Tue night into Wed morning it is drying out enough to cast
doubt as whether there will be any precip at all. One thing to note
though is NAM and GFS soundings suggest that if there is precip
occurring closer to Lake Superior later Tue night into Wed morning
it could be in form of freezing drizzle with northerly flow off Lk
Superior and mid-level drying scouring out any ice aloft. Pretty low
chance based on soundings showing near sfc dry layer. Much cooler
all areas on Wed behind the front and N to NW winds will be gusty
along Lk Superior and probably over much of the east half of Upper
Michigan Wed morning before arrival of high pressure later on Wed
diminishes the winds.

Quiet Wed night into Thu then another shortwave trough/cold front
move through in northwest flow aloft pattern Thu night. On Thu, SW
winds ahead of the front with H85 temps 3C to 5C and mostly sunny
skies indicate many areas could once again see high temps into the
mid or even upper 60s especially away from Lk Michigan. As the front
moves through on Thu night, should see scattered rain showers
eventually change to snow showers late Thu night into Fri morning.
As it looks now, system will be quick moving trough instead of a
more wrapped up system like GFS showed 24 hour ago. Do think there
will be some precip though and don`t prefer the dry look of the
latest ECMWF. Actually for what its worth, the current GFS looks a
lot like the ECMWF from 24 ago. GEFS ensembles show decent chances
of seeing 24 hr qpf 0.10-0.25 inch 12z Thu to 12z Fri. Does not look
cold enough for lake enhancement despite gusty northerly flow off Lk
Superior as H85 temps only get down to -7c or so. Winds will be
strongest late Thu night into Fri morning. Gusts should stay below
30 mph so nothing to out of the ordinary for areas near Lk Superior.
Will be chilly/widespread below normal temps on Fri all areas behind
the front, then temps will slowly rebound next weekend as upper
ridging tries to build over Upper Great Lakes from the central
Plains. Temps next weekend should reach 50s and 60s inland but stay
in the 40s closer to the Great Lakes.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018

With a low pressure system crossing the Mid-Mississippi Valley
through tomorrow, tightening the pressure gradient over the Great
Lakes region, this will allow for prevailing S-SW winds to increase.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period at
all three terminals.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 443 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Winds will remain less than 15 knots through most of the period. The
main exception will be later Tue into Tue night when northwest winds
increase to over 20 knots. Another period of strong wind will arrive
late Thu into Thu night with winds to near 30 knots in the wake of a
cold front moving across Lake Superior.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Snowpack continues to melt steadily but rises on rivers have been
minimal to this point. If there is going to be more of a melt
with this current warmup it should occur today into Tue with very
warm daytime temps and readings at night staying above freezing.
However, dry airmass with sub freezing dwpnts should result in an
overall slower melting of snow than would otherwise occur with
these temps. Fortunately, still looks like we will avoid any
bigger precipitation events this week which would only increase
runoff and flooding potential. Cool down at the end of this week
should really slow down the melt. Overall, observed and forecast
conditions don`t suggest any significant concerns with the snow
melt *this* week. Starting to look like we will have to keep eye
on conditions by early *next* week though as there are indications
we could be in store for an even more significant warm up
accompanied by more low-level moisture/higher dwpnts in the
40s/50s. There could even be some rain. Seems reasonable that if
these conditions materialize, and we still have a decent snowpack
around, we could see minor flooding on the usual rivers that
experience spring flooding.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA


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