Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 150540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
140 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

Sunny skies and mild temps this afternoon will give way to lake
effect snow late this evening into Thursday behind a cold front and
boosted by a shortwave. 850mb temps drop to around -17C by later
tonight with winds mainly from the NNW. High pressure will then move
in from the W tomorrow, so will see rapid diminishing over the W
during the day. While models are handling lake effect quite poorly
right now, think that accumulations will be light at 1-2" in the NNW
wind snowbelts tonight, then up to another inch or maybe two Thu.
Winds will be gusty, especially near Lake Superior, so any
accumulating snow will blow around and reduce visibility at times.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

Relatively benign pattern for the bulk of the medium and longer term
forecast periods. Thur ngt into Fri will feature a broad surface
ridge over the region, providing continued minimal clouds and light
winds. Temperatures will as a result of the minimal cloud cover and
light winds will steadily moderate, with highs pushing into the
lower to perhaps middle 40s away from Lake Superior, but overnight
lows will easily radiate into the single digits to lower teens.

The next weather system will try to lift northeast from the Central
Plains over the weekend; however, with the surface ridge lingering
across the Great Lakes region, this could push the system further
south of slow the northward progression into the Upper Peninsula.

A weak frontal boundary will then slip south early next week, but as
for precipitation there does not appear to be any robust systems
approaching the area. Temps will return to the upper 20s to lower
30s for early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Lake effect clouds and snow will continue into Thursday. Models
continue to handle lake effect quite poorly, so there is uncertainty
with visibilities. Don`t think visibilities will drop too far given
light snowfall expected, but that will need fine tuning as
conditions develop. VFR conditions will occur at all sites Thu

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

Relatively calm winds will prevail until tonight and into Thursday
as winds increase to 20 to 30 knots, strongest over the east half of
the lake.  There could be a few gale force gusts tonight into
Thursday morning, but should not be widespread. Otherwise, the rest
of the week into the weekend, winds should remain at or below 20kts
on Lake Superior.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Rolfson
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