Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 171124
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 504 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad, deep mid-level
low extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic States. Small
embedded mid-level low developed over eastern Lake Superior last
evening, supporting the increase in lake enhanced snow that
occurred. That low is now moving se across eastern Upper MI at a
quickening pace. Ongoing lake enhanced snow under 850mb temps of -10
to -13C began to diminish slightly several hrs ago, but recently it
has picked up again as another shortwave is swinging across
central/eastern Lake Superior in the circulation around the mid-
level low. Radar trends show this increase in snow nicely as
reflectivities have increased and expanded in areal coverage. Snow
has been the much fluffier lake effect variety with snow-to-water
ratios up around 25 to 1 here at the office during the night.

Expect a few more hrs of mdt to ocnl hvy shsn from the Keweenaw into
n cntrl Upper MI, n central in particular, until aforementioned
shortwave over Lake Superior passes. With a few more hrs of snowfall
upwards of 1 in/hr at times, extended ongoing advy to 8 AM.
Thereafter, expect a rapid decrease in snow intensity as forcing
departs and 850mb temps begin to rise. Ocnl lighter snow across the
rest of west and central Upper MI will also diminish. With the
departure of deeper moisture this aftn, any lingering -shsn should
become confined to the higher terrain and may actually end
altogether. Expect high temps in the low/mid 30s.

Tonight, majority of models show some light pcpn over the higher
terrain near Lake Superior as northerly low-level winds gradually
veer ne and increase as sfc high pres ridging noses s over northern
Ontario. Skeptical that any pcpn would occur since obs don`t show
much in the way of IFR or lower cigs n of Lake Superior early this
morning. However, given the signal in most model guidance, opted to
include a mention of pcpn over the high terrain n central and far w
where upsloping would be maximized. Any pcpn that occurs would
transition from -shsn/flurries to -fzdz as temps in the low-level
moist layer rise above -10C. Low temps tonight will be in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 422 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Quiet in the long term. Precip-wise, could see some very light
drizzle or snow in the higher terrain of the W and N-central Wed
into Wed night, but chances of seeing anything significant from that
are low. Clipper system with greater precip stays far enough S to
keep any widespread precip out of the CWA.

Dry for the most part otherwise, with temperatures gradually
increasing each day to near normal values. Should see a couple highs
in the 50s on Fri, then for Sat and Sun highs will range from the
mid 40s to mid 50s. Could even see some highs around 60 Sun and
Mon.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 723 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

As the low pressure system affecting Upper MI weakens, ongoing lake
enhanced snow will diminish this morning. There may be some brief
IFR conditions over the next couple of hrs, but otherwise, MVFR
conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. MVFR conditions should
then mostly prevail this aftn and tonight, though conditions may
improve to VFR for at time at KCMX/KIWD this aftn/evening. In
addition, stratus may develop tonight, dropping cigs to IFR at
KIWD/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 504 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Under a tight pressure gradient between high pres to the n and w and
low pres over southern Ontario, northerly winds of 20-30kt will
continue this morning across Lake Superior along with some patchy
freezing spray. Not out of the question that there could be a few
gale force gusts to 35kt over the central part of the lake. Winds
will diminish dramatically over the far w part of Lake Superior this
aftn while winds of 20-30kt continue over the e. As high pres
remains to the n and w and low pres tracks from KS this evening to
New England Thu morning, expect n to ne winds mostly in the 20-30kt
range across Lake Superior tonight thru Wed night. Winds will then
diminish to under 15kt w to e Thu/Thu night as high pres settles
over the Upper Lakes. With high pres holding over the area Fri/Sat,
winds will remain under 15kt.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ001-
     003>006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson


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