Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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360 FXUS63 KMQT 141105 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 705 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through Wednesday, then periods of showers expected with a few embedded t-storms possible Thursday through the weekend. - Limited fire weather concerns expected in the interior areas today and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 704 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The forecast remains largely on track this morning with a quiet day ahead. Minor adjustments have been made to temperatures over the next few hours to account for slightly cooler morning lows in some spots. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 234 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Sprawling high pressure remains centered around Hudson Bay today, with light NW winds slowly veering more N/NE today as the high slowly slides eastward. Another sunny day is expected, though smoke from upstream wildfires drifting through may make our skies look a bit hazy. Otherwise, some lake breeze development is expected off of Superior, which should cause winds near it to back more to the N/NW. Winds may also become somewhat elevated along the lake breeze, gusting to around 15mph particularly throughout the eastern UP. Amid northerly background flow, the lake breeze may be able to move rather far inland. Temperatures peak well into the 50s and lower 60s across much of the UP, and perhaps into the mid 60s closer to the WI border. However, along the Superior shoreline and especially behind the lake breeze, temperatures may struggle to reach even the lower 50s. Meanwhile, as mixing deepens with daytime heating, expect dewpoints to drop back during the afternoon. Much of the interior UP should see dewpoints falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s, with some spots in the interior-western UP even reaching the mid 20s. This should yield RH values crashing into the mid and upper 20s across much of the western UP, away from the Superior shoreline. The mitigating factor for wildfire spread, however, remains our fairly light winds. Temperatures quickly fall back into the 30s overnight with mostly clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass leading to a good radiational cooling night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Another calm and dry day is in store Wednesday as high pressure ridging begins lifting away from the region while a low pressure over the Northern Plains begins lifting towards the Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, cloud cover generally increases from the west throughout the day as winds at the surface take more of an easterly component. That being said, with the high pressure trying to stubbornly hold on over Lake Superior throughout the day Wednesday, expect the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan lake breezes to move into the interior areas throughout the daylight hours, with the Lake Superior breeze moving closer to Lake Michigan and being the stronger of the two. With upper to mid level clouds moving overhead throughout the day, we won`t have as great amounts of incoming solar radiation that we had yesterday and will have today. However, given the scattered nature of the cloud cover, temperatures Wednesday will be just about what they were yesterday, save for possibly being a bit warmer near the Lake Superior shoreline. Like yesterday and today, expect to see some limited fire weather concerns across the interior west and maybe (50% chance) interior east as min RHs get down to the upper 20 to around 30 percents range. However, even though interior temperatures are expected to get up to the mid 60s to around 70 in the interior west Wednesday, with winds being less than 15 mph, elevated fire weather concerns are not expected. Rain chances enter the U.P. late Wednesday night/Thursday morning beginning in the far west as the low pressure begins to arrive over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. Overall, expect some light rain showers moving across the area Thursday, with maybe (20% chance) a few embedded thunderstorms mixed in here and there by the afternoon hours. Once we start pushing into the latter portions of this week, model solutions among the differing suites rapidly diverge as each handles the quickness of the low`s passage uniquely (as well as the shortwave lows behind it into this weekend). That being said, the different model suites do tell a general story for the rest of the extended period (albeit with greatly varied timings); ultimately, expect multiple shortwaves to impact the area this weekend into early next week. While there will likely (70+% chance) be times where high pressure ridges quickly move over us this weekend through early next week, these ridges look to be swiftly replaced with more shortwave activity as a troughing pattern slowly develops over the western U.S. and sends shots of shortwave energy nearly directly at us (as seen on 250mb wind and height plots). While a soaking rainfall is not expected from Thursday to the end of the forecast period, we do have multiple shots at receiving light rainfall across portions to all of the U.P. for the latter half of the extended period. In addition, low temperatures look to be closer to normal as the extra cloud cover will keep the area better insulated. Meanwhile, expect high temperatures to be fairly close to normal as well due to the same off-and-on cloud cover. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 704 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Despite haze from upstream Canadian wildfires, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period with light north to northeast winds the rest of today. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue today into Wednesday as a surface high pressure stubbornly sits over Lake Superior. However, as a low pressure moves from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday, expect winds to pick up from the northeast over the far western lake to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Once we move into the overnight hours though, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less again as the pressure gradient over the far western lake begins to weaken. As the shortwave moves through the lake Thursday, expect showers and possibly (20% chance) a few embedded thunderstorms here and there, moving from west to east with time. As additional lows move through the lake this weekend, expect additional shower and thunderstorm activity, with winds remaining light at 20 knots or less until at least the end of the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...LC MARINE...TAP