894
FNUS73 KUNR 191346
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Rosebud FB 14 Slash Burn...Rosebud Agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
746 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A few light sprinkles are possible this morning,
with warm temperatures returning later today. Winds will be gusty
from the south at 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 40 mph most of the
day. A cold front will move through between 1700 and 2000
(5 PM to 8 PM CDT) this afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected along with gusty and erratic winds.
Some storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
After today, cooler and wet conditions are expected for much
of the upcoming week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around
                    40 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......5800 to 6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 35 to 45 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Some storms could be strong to severe with
                    large hail and strong, erratic winds.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest overnight. Gusts up to 24 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 30 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......3800 to 4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

$$
Forecaster...MS
Requested by...Bert Shields
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414641.0/UNR
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.golus@bia.gov