Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
159
FNUS71 KAKQ 301150
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for TNC Nassawango RX...Maryland forest service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Very warm conditions continue today with min RH values of 35 to
40 percent. A weak cold front moves through tonight into
Wednesday, bringing isolated showers and storms later this evening
into tonight and scattered showers and storms Wednesday. Dry and
warm weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. Rain chances
increase Saturday with the next front.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph increasing to 21 to 24
mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (73700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................14 early in the morning increasing to 82 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16 19 23 26 33 39 46 52 58 64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............69 73 76 79 81 83 85 85 85 84
RH..............68 59 54 49 46 41 39 39 39 40
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..9 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 11
20 FT wind gust.14 16 19 21 21 21 22 21 21 19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.14 17 22 24 24 24 23 23 22 21
LVORI...........3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............14 27 48 67 76 80 82 81 79 73
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 18 33 50 60 68 74 73 70 65
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph decreasing to 5 to 7 mph
in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................50 early in the evening decreasing to 3 late in
the night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67 70 73 75 76 77 79 81 83 81 79 78
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 10
Temp............82 78 74 72 70 69 68 68 67 66 65 65
RH..............43 50 57 61 68 70 73 73 75 78 81 81
20 FT wind dir..SW S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW S S SW SW SW S S SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.17 13 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5
ADI.............50 14 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38 17 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest 10 to
13 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
the north 6 to 14 mph late in the morning
shifting to the southeast 2 to 3 mph late in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (30500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 39.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........78 80 70 67 69 52
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 20 10 10
Temp............65 66 71 72 75 74
RH..............81 81 68 64 55 55
20 ft wind......W 5 W 5 NW 6 N 6 NE 6 E 6
20 ft wind gust.8 8 11 11 9 11
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1100 2000 2700 3200 2800
Transport wind..SW 5 W 8 N 13 N 13 N 9 E 3
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 2
ADI.............3 11 31 39 36 12
Haines index....3 3 2 3 4 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 8 22 31 26 8
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...GINGRICH
Requested by...Lance Carroll
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412762.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Lance.carroll@maryland.gov