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000
FXUS61 KALY 240308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1108 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and mild conditions continue this evening as clouds
increase across the region. Light rain showers develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning before gusty winds and cooler
temperatures arrive behind the cold front late tomorrow
afternoon into Wednesday night. Surface high pressure brings a
return to mild and dry weather to end the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

As of 11pm, forecast remains on track tonight. Just some minor
adjustments to winds tonight as we expect many areas to remain
breezy overnight. Sustained winds likely range 5-15kts with
gusts up to 20-25kts at least through 06 UTC as the pressure
gradients tightens ahead of the approaching front. The breezy
winds will keep temperatures milder but previous forecast
temperature adjustments are on track. Otherwise, spotty light
showers are gradually spilling into the western Adirondacks so
maintained likely and high chance POPs there. Otherwise,
forecast is on track.

Previous discussion [830pm ET]...Main changes for this update
were to trim back POPs a bit as the 00 UTC ALY sounding shows
plenty of dry air in the mid and low levels; thus,
reflectivities seen on regional radars tracking into the western
Adirondacks are struggling to reach the ground. Most of the
area will remain dry through at least Midnight before chance and
likely POPs creep eastward. Held off widespread chance POPs
until 06 - 12 UTC when guidance is in better agreement that the
low and mid-levels become saturated enough for rain to reach the
ground. Otherwise, we also adjusted temperatures upwards a few
degrees tonight thanks to increasing clouds and southerly winds
remaining breezy. Temperatures this evening gradually cool with
overnight lows reaching into the mid to upper 40s.

Previous discussion [4pm ET]...Weak surface high pressure
squeezed between an approaching frontal low to the west and a
cut-off low drifting northward to the east over the Atlantic
will be steadily nudged out of the region this evening. Under
its influence, temperatures have risen well above normal,
reaching highs mostly in the 60s across the region, and some
pockets near 70 along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. A surface
low moving over the Great Lakes while surface high pressure
remains centered to the south has allowed for breezy south to
southeast winds to develop for this afternoon, with gusts of
around 25 mph possible for much of the region through this
evening. In collaboration with state environment and forestry
agencies, a Special Weather Statement for enhanced risk of fire
spread remains in place across southern Vermont and east-central
New York thanks to these gusty winds combined with low surface
humidity.

Clear skies continue across much of the Northeast, however high
clouds will initially increase from the west this afternoon and
evening before lower clouds arrive overnight. A positively-
tilted trough and associated frontal system will bring overcast
skies and scattered rain showers beginning overnight.
Precipitation is expected to remain light, with rainfall
accumulations of less than 0.25 inches expected for most.
Beneath overcast skies and with ongoing precipitation, overnight
temperatures remain mild with lows only dipping into the upper
30s to mid 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface low will make its nearest approach
Wednesday morning, passing over the Adirondacks and continuing
to the northeast through the day. Rain shower coverage will
likely be higher in the vicinity of the low, with more scattered
coverage elsewhere, particularly to the south and east of the
Capital District, where there may be some breaks of sun into the
afternoon. These breaks may allow for enough additional surface
heating to result in sufficient destabilization for a few
rumbles of thunder within any convective rain shower, although
confidence in any occurrences of thunder remains low.

Precipitation will taper from west to east through the
afternoon, although it may linger longer in favored upslope
areas as surface flow turns out of the west. Much of the region
will see gusts reaching 20-25 mph behind the cold frontal
passage, while the arrival of cooler air may yield some wet snow
in the highest terrain of the southern Greens and Adirondacks,
however little to no accumulation is expected.

As surface high pressure quickly builds in behind the cold
front, dry weather, clear skies, and cooler temperatures will
persist Wednesday night through Thursday night. Afternoon highs
each day may only reach the 40s in high terrain, with 50s at
lower elevations. Cold overnight lows in the upper 10s to upper
20s on Wednesday night will moderate slightly by Thursday night,
when temperatures will reach the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level ridging builds into the region Friday with sunny weather.
Highs Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warm advection begins
later Friday as high pressure builds east and south.

Upper ridging builds into our region from the west Saturday through
Monday and as the upper ridge axis shifts east of our region Monday
and beyond, increasing warm advection and moisture advection will
support increasing clouds and eventually chances for showers.

Clouds and showers will gradually build into our region from the
west and north each day, with scattered showers reaching western and
northern areas Saturday as weak upper energy tries to track around
the northern periphery of the upper ridging. More clouds than sun by
Saturday afternoon and that trend will continue through Monday but
there will be some periods of sun along with increasing warm
advection to help temperatures warm each day, especially Monday.
Highs Saturday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Sunday in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs Monday in the 70s to around 80.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis shifts well to the east and
southwest boundary layer winds increase along with low level
forcing/convergence, instability and moisture, supporting better
chances for showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, with the
warm airmass in the region and associated instability. Highs Tuesday
in the 70s with some mid 60s to around 70 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue through 06 UTC
Thursday. Rain showers spread from northwest to southeast by 09
to 12 UTC and while rain will mainly be light, we included a
TEMPO for MVFR vis and cigs by 12 to 16 UTC at GFL, ALB, and
PSF when periods of steadier rain and lower ceilings may occur.
Rain become scattered and light after 16 UTC as an upper level
low gradually moves overhead. A few rumbles of thunder are even
possible at PSF, POU and ALB as the upper level cold pool moves
overhead resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Did not
include thunder in the latest TAFs given uncertainty on exact
storm coverage. MVFR ceilings may linger at PSF through the
afternoon. POU looks to remain mainly south of the steadier rain
so kept VFR conditions at this site. VFR ceilings ensue by 21 -
00 UTC at all TAF sites which will support improvement to VFR
at all terminals by the end of the TAF cycle.

Southerly winds remain breezy tonight sustained 5-15 kt with
gusts up 15-25 kt through Midnight before winds gusts subside.
Sustained southerly winds remain a bit elevated ranging 5-12kts
through 16 UTC. A sharp wind shift to the west-northwest occurs
by 16-17 UTC at all terminals with winds becoming gusty as they
continue shifting to the north-northwest through the afternoon.
Expect gusts up to 25-30kts at ALB and PSF with gusts a bit
weaker at GFL and POU, only gusting up to 20-25kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will shift eastward today bringing partly to
mostly sunny, breezy and milder weather with temperatures rising
into the 60s with some upper 50s across the higher elevations. RH
values will lower to 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours
with southerly winds gusting to around 25 mph.

A period of rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday and
may mix with or end as a brief period of snow across portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens before ending. Dry weather
then returns for Thursday and Friday with winds generally 5 to
15 mph both days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Picard/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun