Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FGUS71 KALY 141954
ESFALY
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-025-212000-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Flood threat is generally near normal for the next two
weeks...

The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout
the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered near normal due
to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and
snowmelt. The flood threat is above normal for the Schroon River
in New York where rises to near or above flood stage are possible
in the outlook period. Due to a lack of river ice, ice jams are
not currently forecasted to be a threat.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does
not address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the sixth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by
the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 14th
through the 28th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...
Snow depth and snow water equivalent are both well below normal across
the ALY CWA. Snowpack in the higher terrain of the Western
Adirondacks has about 4 to 12 inches of depth with liquid
equivalents of 1 to 2 inches with isolated pockets of 4 to 5
inches at the highest elevations. The northwestern portion of Lake
George region has about 2 to 12 inches of snow depth with liquid
equivalent of a trace to 2 inches. The southeastern portion of the
Lake George region is snow free. Southern Vermont has regained
some snowpack, though it’s been melting as well through the week,
with lower elevations generally snow free and up to 2 to 8 inches
at elevation. Liquid equivalent at elevation is generally 1 to 2
inches. The rest of the service area is snow free.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New
York are generally above normal to much above normal. Per USGS
monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily much above
normal with a few monitoring locations near normal. Palmer drought
severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook
area, generally “extremely moist”. New York State Mesonet
observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP)
water supply reservoir levels are above normal for this time of
year. Recent rainfall and snowmelt have added to system storage,
which remains well above normal. Total storage is currently at
100.3 percent of capacity, or 7.9 percent above normal capacity
for this time of year.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels have
risen and are now all at or above normal for this time of year.
The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 20 feet above normal for
this time of year. Indian Lake is over 2 feet above normal for
this time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater
Reservoir is over 4 feet above normal, First Lake is less than a
foot above normal, and Sixth Lake is right at normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for March
20 to 24 call for below normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation. Looking further out, the 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks
for March 22 to 28 call for above normal temperatures and
precipitation.

...SUMMARY...

The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout
the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered near normal due
to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and
snowmelt. The flood threat is above normal for the Schroon River
in New York where rises to near or above flood stage are possible
in the outlook period. Due to a lack of river ice, ice jams are
not currently forecasted to be a threat.

Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to ten day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at
www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany

$$

bew


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.