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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141112
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today... an upper-level ridge builds over the Southern Plains in
response to a digging western trough. This will lead to highs
largely around 90 degrees in the east and mid-80s in the west.
Although relative humidity values will be very low today, winds will
merely be around 5 to 15 mph which should mitigate much concern for
any kind of fire weather today.

Focus quickly turns to Monday for multiple forms of hazardous
weather. Dry air will already be in place in the western half of the
Panhandles which will only get drier as mixing commences Monday
morning. Winds will gradually strengthen through the morning hours
and dry air will begin to push eastward through the Panhandles. Mid
to high clouds are favored in the eastern Panhandles which may
slightly stunt the mixing processes, but should begin to clear out
by the mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough will
approach the Panhandles throughout the day, and the current speed of
the trough suggests that intense lee cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado may begin in the late morning hours through the afternoon.
This will kick off two important pieces:

1) The surface pressure gradient will steepen across the area,
creating breezy to windy conditions.
2) Moisture advection in south and central Texas will intensify,
drawing low-level moisture toward the Panhandles.

Most of the latest guidance doesn`t bring appreciable low-level
moisture in to the eastern combined Panhandles until the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Even then, the cap may still be
too strong for convective initiation along the dryline in the
eastern Panhandles due to morning/early afternoon mid to high
clouds. Therefore... convective initiation in the Panhandles along
the dryline is highly uncertain. It is still something that needs to
be watched because, if the more aggressive low-level moisture return
solutions pan out and the cap becomes weak enough, 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE is possible off the caprock in the southeastern Texas
Panhandle along with 70-80 kts effective shear. This means that any
storm with a sustained updraft would quickly become supercellular
with very large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards, but a
tornado would be possible. That said, it`s important to reiterate
that the confidence in dryline convection is very low at this time
as multiple factors need to come together just right (sufficient
"just in time" low-level moisture return, cap breaks, sustained
updraft/minimal dry air entrainment) in order for this to happen.

Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will be moving eastward through
the Panhandles in the early evening hours Monday but plenty of
timing issues remain. Regardless, as this occurs, the dryline will
be retreating as low-level moisture begins to win the battle
against the dry air. If convection fails to develop along the
dryline, it is possible that the collision of the progressing
Pacific front and retreating dryline will provide enough forcing
to develop thunderstorms. This convection would be less likely to
remain discrete and more likely to become linear, but large hail
(potentially very large hail with any initially discrete
thunderstorms) and damaging winds would be the primary hazards.

Not to be outdone, there are concerns west of the dryline as well:
critical fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values will be
around 5% to 10% along with sustained winds between 25 to 35 mph
with gusts up to 50 mph. Patchy blowing dust will also be possible
in this area.

Winds will remain breezy to windy behind the Pacific front through
Monday night as the intense system pushes eastward.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The aforementioned upper level storm system is expected to move
north and east of the region towards eastern Nebraska by late
Tuesday afternoon with a return to dry weather foreseen. However,
the pressure gradient will remain tight such that breezy to windy
conditions will develop across the area on Tuesday. It appears the
overall strongest winds will likely occur across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and possibly extending into the far northern Texas
Panhandle. A Wind Advisory may eventually need to be considered
for at least the Oklahoma Panhandle if these progged winds are to
materialize. Winds will rapidly diminish early Tuesday evening as
the gradient relaxes. Another cold front is then forecast to move
across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
cooler temperatures anticipated Thursday through Saturday. Another
upper level shortwave trof may impact the area Friday night and
Saturday and could bring the next chance for precipitation.
Specific details concerning this next storm system remain
problematic this far out in time. Nevertheless, medium range
deterministic models and associated ensembles are in basic
agreement and were accepted.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Only wind
direction changes were noted in the TAFs, but winds will remain
around 10 kts or less throughout this forecast period.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very poor relative humidity recovery (maximum values between 20%
to 40%) is expected Sunday night in the western half of the
combined Panhandles, especially in the northwestern combined
Panhandles, leading to accelerated drying potential. Monday, the
combination of very low relative humidity and breezy to windy
conditions west of the dryline is expected to create critical fire
weather conditions. However, there is lower confidence in
critical fire weather conditions in the southwestern Texas
Panhandle due to the 1 to 4 inches of rain that fell less than a
week prior, in addition to the ongoing green-up. All considered, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northwestern and north-central Texas Panhandle. Have left the
southwestern Texas Panhandle out of the watch as fuels are
currently expected to be unreceptive.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                87  52  83  50 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  92  50  89  50 /   0   0  10  30
Boise City OK              84  47  82  44 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  92  54  89  53 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              88  50  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  86  51  84  48 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               89  54  82  54 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 85  46  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  88  48  86  46 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                86  50  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                92  54  86  54 /   0   0  10  30
Pampa TX                   89  54  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
Shamrock TX                92  54  83  54 /   0   0  20  40
Wellington TX              92  53  82  54 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ001>003-006>008.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52